The Evolving Indian Narrative

The Arctic sea ice hit its lowest extent in 2012. The ice has also thinned, and the mean ice draft, i.e. the ice extending below the surface of water at the end of the melt season, has reduced. The water flowing from the Atlantic into the Arctic Ocean is approximately 2°C warmer than nearly 2000 years ago. Also, nearly 25 per cent of the permafrost and icy soil in the northern hemisphere could defrost. Permafrost is frozen soil that can be hundreds of metres deep. Scientists have predicted that thawing permafrost will result in nearly 300 to 400 billion tonnes of methane released into the atmosphere; and that if all Siberian permafrost thawed and released its carbon in the form of heat-trapping carbon dioxide, it could nearly double the 730 billion metric tonnes of carbon now in the atmosphere.Soot emitted by inefficient industrial processes such as the burning of fossil fuels and natural-gas flaring, biomass decomposition and vegetable matter decomposition and smoky cooking appliances has also contributed to global warming. Using satellite data and computer models, a study by NASA scientists has concluded that black carbon may have a significant warming impact on the Arctic. The research notes that nearly 33 per cent of the soot that originates in South Asia is from burning biomass or vegetation; the balance is from Russia, Europe and North America.The research also shows that the Arctic could be ice-free seasonally in the next two to three decades. These changes offer a mixed bag of opportunities and challenges. The opportunities emerge in the form of new routes and resources - living and non-living. The challenges relate to the possible adverse impact on the Arctic environment, flora and fauna and fish stocks in the region. The human footprint in the form of tourism and infrastructure would impact the fragile ecosystem, including the lifestyles of the indigenous people. Besides, they are now confronted by the oil and gas companies making a beeline to exploit the resources in the region.The thawing of permafrost could also adversely impact the infrastructure erected on it, such as collapse of buildings, cracking of roads and rail tracks, and rupturing of oil pipelines.Routes and ShippingIssues related to shipping routes through the Arctic are fast gathering momentum. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) is expected to cut sailing distance between Yokohama in Japan to Rotterdam in the Netherlands by nearly 5000 nautical miles, saving approximately 10-15 days of passage time. However, the route is still underdeveloped due to lack of charts, navigation aids and port infrastructure for repairs; the search-and-rescue resources are also still to be developed.In 2012, as many as 46 vessels sailed through the NSR (25 eastbound and 21 westbound) compared with 34 voyages in 2011 and only four in 2010. Nearly 1.30 million tonnes of cargo was shipped through the NSR in 2012 compared with over 800,000 tonnes in 2011. As many as 26 tankers (18, west-east and 8 east-west) carried nearly 900,000 tonnes of oil and gas and other petroleum products. An LNG tanker sailing from Hammerfest in Norway to Tobata in Japan covered more than 6000 miles through the NSR, saving nearly twenty days. It is believed that by 2015, the Arctic will be ice-free during the summer, allowing more ships to sail across. Shipping companies are developing strategies for exploiting the new route. Importantly, in 2006, a total of 262 ice-class ships were being built, and an additional 234 ice-strengthened ships were scheduled for delivery by 2012-13.Resources in the Arctic RegionThe Arctic's energy and mineral resources are geographically exploitable. The 2008 US Geological Survey report notes that over 70 per cent of the undiscovered Arctic oil resources are in five areas - Alaska, Amerasia Basin, East Greenland Rift Basins, East Barents Basins, and West Greenland-East Canada. More than 70 per cent of the undiscovered natural gas is in the West Siberian Basin, the East Barents Basins, and Arctic Alaska. …

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