Natural Language Processing Applied to Reduction of False and Missed Alarms in Kick and Lost Circulation Detection
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Abstract Kick and lost circulation events are large contributors to non-productive time. Therefore, early detection of these events is crucial. In the absence of good flow in and flow out sensors, pit volume trends offer the best possibility for influx/loss detection, but errors occur since external mud addition /removal to the pits is not monitored or sensed. The goal is to reduce false alarms caused by such mud additions and removal. Data analyzed from over 100s of wells in North America show that mud addition and removal results in certain unique pit volume gain / loss trends, and these trends are quite different from a kick, a lost circulation or a wellbore breathing event trend. Additionally, driller's input text memos into the data aggregation system (EDR) and these memos often provide information with regards to pit operations. In this paper, we introduce a method that utilizes a Bayesian network to aggregate trends detected in time-series data with events identified by natural language processing (NLP) of driller memos critical to greatly improve the accuracy and robustness of kick and lost circulation detection. The methodology was implemented in software that is currently running on rigs in North America. During the test phase, we applied it on several historical wells with lost circulation events and several historical wells with kick events. We were able to identify and quantify the losses even during connections and mud additions, where usually pit volume was increasing despite continual losses. Also, the real-time simultaneous analysis of driller memos provides context to pit volume trends and further reduce the false alarms. The algorithm is also able to take account of pit volume that was reduced due to drilling. Quantification of the losses offers more insight into what lost circulation material to use and the changes in the rate of loss while drilling. This approach was very robust in discovering kicks as well and differentiating it from mud addition and wellbore breathing events. These historical case studies will be detailed in this paper. This is the first time that patterns in mud volume addition and removal detected from time-series data have been used along with driller memos using NLP to reduce false alerts in kick and lost circulation detection. This approach is particularly useful in identifying kick and lost circulation events from pit volume data, especially when good flow in and flow out sensors are not available. The paper provides guidance on how real-time sensor data can be combined with textual data to improve the outputs from an advisory system.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,004 | 0,019 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,003 | 0,002 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,002 | 0,001 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».