Retrospective study of non-natural manners of death in Ontario: Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and related public health measures
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
BACKGROUND: The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on non-natural manners of death in Ontario is not known. Understanding the indirect consequences of the pandemic and related public health measures (i.e. lockdown) fills a vital need to inform best practice in public health and guide policy decisions. METHODS: The Office of the Chief Coroner and the Ontario Forensic Pathology Service (OCC-OFPS) investigate sudden and unexpected deaths in the province of Ontario. The number of homicides, suicides, and accidental deaths (non-natural deaths=77,655) were extracted from the centralized Coroner's Information System database (total deaths=197,966), across four provincially defined stages of lockdown related to the COVID-19 pandemic (March 17 to December 31, 2020), and crude rates (per 100,000 people) were compared to the previous eleven years. FINDINGS: There was no major change to the rate of homicides during 2020 compared to 2009-2019 (RR 1⋅1, 95% CI 0⋅95-1⋅2; p=0⋅19; estimated annual effect=21 more deaths in 2020). The rate of suicides also did not show an overall major change in 2020 (RR 1⋅02, 95% CI 0⋅96-1⋅1; p=0⋅50; estimated annual effect=27 more deaths in 2020). However, during the first stage of lockdown (Stage 0), there was a decrease in the rate of suicides compared to all combinations of recent years from 2013 onwards (RRs 0⋅82-0⋅86, combined 95% CI 0⋅69-0⋅99; max p=0⋅039; estimated effect of 30 less deaths in Stage 0). There was an excess of over 1,500 accidental drug-related deaths that occurred during 2020 (RR 2⋅5, 95% CI 2⋅4-2⋅7; p<0⋅001). This finding held up to 'interrupted time series' robustness testing, indicating that 2020 had substantially more drug-related deaths, even when accounting for the linear increasing trend over time. Although motor vehicle collision associated fatalities appeared to decrease slightly in 2020 (RR 0⋅89, 95% CI 0⋅81-0⋅96; p=0⋅0039; estimated annual effect of 78 less deaths), we could not conclude any lockdown-associated effect, particularly when compared to 2019 (RR 0⋅26, 95% CI 0⋅75-1⋅1; p=0⋅26). INTERPRETATION: In Ontario, the short-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic did not greatly increase homicide or suicide rates, nor decrease motor vehicle collision fatality rates; however, the longer-term impact of the pandemic remains to be elucidated and ongoing vigilance is warranted in the event that other trends emerge. Accidental drug-related fatalities substantially increased during all stages of the lockdown, marking an urgent need for consideration in policy. These results highlight the vital role of death investigation systems in providing high quality and timely data to inform public health recommendations.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,004 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».