1309. Incidence and Epidemiology of Invasive Pneumococcal Disease due to Serotype 3 in South-Central Ontario
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Abstract Background In our population, the most common serotype (ST) of S. pneumoniae causing invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) is now ST 3. We undertook an analysis of population based surveillance for IPD to examine the incidence and epidemiology of ST 3 disease over the last 25 years. Methods The Toronto Invasive Bacterial Diseases Network has performed population-based surveillance for IPD in Toronto/Peel region (pop’n 4.5M) since 1995. All sterile site isolates of S. pneumoniae are reported to a central study laboratory, isolates are serotyped, and clinical and vaccination data are collected via patient and physician interview and chart review. Population data are obtained from Statistics Canada. Results From 1995-2020, 11032 episodes of IPD occurred; 10015 had STs available, and 10484 clinical data. Overall, ST 3 comprised 9.2% of cases (N=931). Compared to other patients with IPD, those with ST 3 IPD were older (median age 65 vs. 58.5, P< .001), more likely to have underlying lung (22.7% v 16.0%, P< .0001) and cardiac (21.7 v 18.4, P=.02) disease and less likely to be immunocompromised (IC) (23.1% v 29.0% P< .0001). ST3 episodes were more likely to be pneumonia (81% v 65%), less likely to be bacteremia without focus (7.6% v 18.9%), and more likely to require ICU admission (42.3% v 25.1%) and to die (27.1% v 16.6%). In multivariable analysis, patients with ST 3 disease remained more likely to die (OR 1.65; 95%CI1.3-2.0). Over time, the proportion of patients with ST 3 IPD who were nursing home (NH) residents (18/171 in 1995-2000 vs. 4/215 in 2016-2020, P=.0002), and who were IC (46/169 in 1995-2000 vs 39/204 in 2016-2020, P=.007) decreased significantly; in IPD due to other STs, the proportion who were NH residents declined, but the proportion IC increased significantly. The case fatality rate (CFR) declined significantly in IPD due to ST3 but not other STs (Figure 1). Changes in incidence are shown in Figure 2. Figure 2: Incidence of serotype 3 IPD over time, Toronto/Peel, 1995-2020 The incidence of ST3 IPD in children and adults under 65 did not change significantly from 1995/96 to 2019/20. In older adults, the annual incidence of disease declined from 4.98 per 100,000 per year in 1995-2000 to 3.53 per 100,000 per year in 2001-2010 (IRR 0.71, 95%CI 0.56-0.90), then to 2.23 per 100,000 per year in 2011-2020 (IRR compared to 2001-2010 0.63, 95%CI 0.50-0.79) FIgure 2: Case fatality rate of IPD due to serotype 3 and other serotypes over time, 1995-2020, Toronto-Peel The case fatality rate of IPD due to ST3 declined from 37.6% (56/149) in 1995-2000 to 50/235 (21.3%) in 2015-2020 (P<.0001). The CFR in other serotypes did not change. Conclusion The epidemiology of IPD due to ST3 has changed significantly over time and the CFR has declined. The incidence of ST3 disease in children and younger adults has not changed significantly, although the power to detect change is low in children. In older adults the incidence of ST3 disease declined significantly after PPV23 introduction in 1995/6 and again after PCV13 introduction for children. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,003 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».