Area-level social and structural inequalities determine mortality related to COVID-19 diagnosis in Ontario, Canada: a population-based explanatory modeling study of 11.8 million people

ABSTRACT Importance Social determinants of health (SDOH) play an important role in COVID-19 outcomes. More research is needed to quantify this relationship and understand the underlying mechanisms. Objectives To examine differential patterns in COVID-19-related mortality by area-level SDOH accounting for confounders; and to compare these patterns to those for non-COVID-19 mortality, and COVID-19 case fatality (COVID-19-related death among those diagnosed). Design, setting, and participants Population-based retrospective cohort study including all community living individuals aged 20 years or older residing in Ontario, Canada, as of March 1, 2020 who were followed through to March 2, 2021. Exposure SDOH variables derived from the 2016 Canada Census at the dissemination area-level including: median household income; educational attainment; proportion of essential workers, racialized groups, recent immigrants, apartment buildings, and high-density housing; and average household size. Main outcomes and measures COVID-19-related death was defined as death within 30 days following, or 7 days prior to a positive SARS-CoV-2 test. Cause-specific hazard models were employed to examine the associations between SDOH and COVID-19-related mortality, treating non-COVID-19 mortality as a competing risk. Results Of 11,810,255 individuals included, 3,880 (0.03%) died related to COVID-19 and 88,107 (0.75%) died without a positive test. After accounting for demographics, baseline health, and other SDOH, the following SDOH were associated with increased hazard of COVID-19-related death (hazard ratios [95% confidence intervals]) comparing the most to least vulnerable group): lower income (1.30[1.09-1.54]), lower educational attainment (1.27[1.10-1.47]), higher proportion essential workers (1.28[1.10-1.50]), higher proportion racialized groups (1.42[1.16-1.73]), higher proportion apartment buildings (1.25[1.11-1.41]), and larger vs. medium household size (1.30[1.13-1.48]). In comparison, areas with higher proportion racialized groups were associated with a lower hazard of non-COVID-19 mortality (0.88[0.85-0.92]). With the exception of income, SDOH were not independently associated with COVID-19 case fatality. Conclusions and relevance Area-level social and structural inequalities determine COVID-19-related mortality after accounting for individual demographic and clinical factors. COVID-19 has reversed the pattern of lower non-COVID-19 mortality by racialized groups. Pandemic responses should include prioritized and community-tailored intervention strategies to address SDOH that mechanistically underpin disproportionate acquisition and transmission risks and shape barriers to the reach of, and access to prevention interventions. Key points Question Are area-level social determinants of health factors independently associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related mortality after accounting for demographics and clinical factors? Findings In this population-based cohort study including 11.8 million adults residing in Ontario, Canada and 3,880 COVID-19-related death occurred between Mar 1, 2020 and Mar 2, 2021, we found that areas characterized by lower SES (including lower income, lower educational attainment, and higher proportion essential workers), greater ethnic diversity, more apartment buildings, and larger vs. medium household size were associated with increased hazard of COVID-19-related mortality compared to their counterparts, even after accounting for individual-level demographics, baseline health, and other area-level SDOH. Meaning Pandemic responses should include prioritized and community-tailored intervention strategies to address SDOH that mechanistically underpin inequalities in acquisition and transmission risks, and in the reach of, and access to prevention interventions.

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