Comparing Contact Tracing Through Bluetooth and GPS Surveillance Data: Simulation-Driven Approach (Preprint)

BACKGROUND Accurate and responsive epidemiological simulations of epidemic outbreaks inform decision-making to mitigate the impact of pandemics. These simulations must be grounded in quantities derived from measurements, among which the parameters associated with contacts between individuals are notoriously difficult to estimate. Digital contact tracing data, such as those provided by Bluetooth beaconing or GPS colocating, can provide more precise measures of contact than traditional methods based on direct observation or self-reporting. Both measurement modalities have shortcomings and are prone to false positives or negatives, as unmeasured environmental influences bias the data. OBJECTIVE We aim to compare GPS colocated versus Bluetooth beacon–derived proximity contact data for their impacts on transmission models’ results under community and types of diseases. METHODS We examined the contact patterns derived from 3 data sets collected in 2016, with participants comprising students and staff from the University of Saskatchewan in Canada. Each of these 3 data sets used both Bluetooth beaconing and GPS localization on smartphones running the Ethica Data (Avicenna Research) app to collect sensor data about every 5 minutes over a month. We compared the structure of contact networks inferred from proximity contact data collected with the modalities of GPS colocating and Bluetooth beaconing. We assessed the impact of sensing modalities on the simulation results of transmission models informed by proximate contacts derived from sensing data. Specifically, we compared the incidence number, attack rate, and individual infection risks across simulation results of agent-based susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed transmission models of 4 different contagious diseases. We have demonstrated their differences with violin plots, 2-tailed t tests, and Kullback-Leibler divergence. RESULTS Both network structure analyses show visually salient differences in proximity contact data collected between GPS colocating and Bluetooth beaconing, regardless of the underlying population. Significant differences were found for the estimated attack rate based on distance threshold, measurement modality, and simulated disease. This finding demonstrates that the sensor modality used to trace contact can have a significant impact on the expected propagation of a disease through a population. The violin plots of attack rate and Kullback-Leibler divergence of individual infection risks demonstrated discernible differences for different sensing modalities, regardless of the underlying population and diseases. The results of the t tests on attack rate between different sensing modalities were mostly significant (P<.001). CONCLUSIONS We show that the contact networks generated from these 2 measurement modalities are different and generate significantly different attack rates across multiple data sets and pathogens. While both modalities offer higher-resolution portraits of contact behavior than is possible with most traditional contact measures, the differential impact of measurement modality on the simulation outcome cannot be ignored and must be addressed in studies only using a single measure of contact in the future.

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