A Prediction On the Performance And Economic Viability of Future Gas Wells In the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Abstract The Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) is dominantly a gas-bearing basin, particularly in the western and northern regions. With the major fluctuations in gas prices over the past year, it has become increasingly difficult to determine the economic viability of exploring for and developing natural gas reserves within the basin. Each geographic area within the WCSB has its own economic criteria from the relatively inexpensive low reserve, low deliverability shallow gas of southeastern Alberta to the high reserve, high deliverability of Western Alberta and Northeastern British Columbia. To compare which plays are economically more attractive, a detailed analysis must be done to statistically compare the risk factors, the ultimate reserves and deliverability for each gas-bearing horizon. In addition a full cycle economic model must be constructed in order to determine the future economic viability of each play. To predict how future wells will perform, the statistical database must be based on the most recent drilling; however, success, reserves and deliverability trends through time must also be investigated. The current model subdivides the WCSB into thirteen geographic areas and related gas-bearing horizons. Statistical success rates, ultimate reserves and deliverabilities for current gas wells have been determined for each gas-bearing interval through time. Data from the last five years is then utilized to predict the risked and unrisked reserve and deliverability distribution for future wells within each geographic area. An economic model using land, seismic, capital and operating costs compares gas plays, prospects and acquisition opportunities across the WCSB. Introduction The full cycle economic viability for all productive natural gas formations ("gas plays" ) in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin ("WCSB" ) can be determined using publicly available geological, land, and production data. This paper represents a summary of the processes utilized in a larger regional study performed by the consulting firm Ashton Jenkins Mann (AJM) in 2001. The regional study utilized various parameters for the gas plays resulting from an unbiased statistical analysis of all wells drilled during the past five years within the WCSB. Results were reported for both risked (Exploration and Development) and unrisked (Development) cases. The area investigated in the regional study includes all productive natural gas formations in Western Saskatchewan, Alberta and Northeastern British Columbia. The basin was subdivided into thirteen (13) geographic areas (Figure 1). The geology and production characteristics vary significantly over such large areas, thus within each area a series of "Stratigraphic Intervals" were defined to group similar geologic formations together, based on chronological age, lithology and production characteristics (Figure 2). For each stratigraphic interval in each geographic area the following techniques and financial parameters were summarized to determine the economic viability of each productive interval within the WCSB:Success factorsReserves per wellInitial production per wellCapital expense per wellF &D costsLifting costsBreakeven gas pricesBreakeven reservesGas price sensitivity curves The determination of ultimate reserves, initial production rates, and decline rates on a per well basis was undertaken using AJM's proprietary RAPID (Reserves and Production Information Database) software.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,003 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,002 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».