Corrigendum

Equation (16) is missing a transpose sign. The correct version reads Equations (13) and (14) incorrectly omit the cross-panel correlation terms and describe variance terms as applying to the observations rather than the residuals. The correct versions are In both these cases the error was in the printed equations, whereas the correct version was used for computations, so no changes to the results are needed. We found that data obtained from PCMDI for the GISS-ER model runs contained an error. The time series of the 20C3M period were concatenated to their corresponding A1B data based on each model's run number. For example, run 3 for the 20C3M was concatenated with run 3 for A1B. This is incorrect. The netCDf meta data as well as GISS-ER documentation (http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/model_documentation/GISS-E.htm) shows that 20c3m run 3 initialized a1b run 1, 20c3m run 6 initialized a1b run 2, 20c3m run 7 initialized a1b run 3, 20c3m run 8 initialized a1b run 4 and 20c3m run 9 initialized a1b run 5. The 20C3M and A1B time series were re-concatenated in the proper order. We verified with NASA-GISS that our understanding of how runs were numbered was correct. Before re-computing our results we obtained updated versions of the observational series, all of which were revised since the calculations for MMH10 were completed. The revisions to the GISS-ER data raised its LT and MT trends slightly and the revisions to observational series reduced the trends in all cases. These changes affected some of our test scores, each time in the direction of confirming, rather than overturning, our original conclusions and inferences. Revised versions of Tables I–III are provided herein. The changes affect five inferences. (1) The p-value of the combined MSU trend for 1979–2009 computed using the panel regression method rose from 0.042 to 0.052, which, technically speaking, implies a fall from significance to marginal significance. (2) The VF () score for the HadAT 1979–2009 balloon series trend fell from 55.16 to 39.47, which is now below the 95% critical value, implying a drop in the LT trend to marginal significance. (3) The VF () score for the mean observed 1979–2009 MT trend fell from 23.77 to 13.62, implying a drop from marginal significance to insignificance. (4) The VF () score for the RICH 1979–2009 balloon series trend fell from 41.43 to 4.47, implying a drop from marginal significance to insignificance (the trend term itself fell from 0.072 to 0.025 °C/decade.) (5) The p-value on the test score on the panel regression-based test of a difference between the RSS satellite series and climate models in the LT layer over 1979–2009 fell from 0.059 to 0.032, indicating a change to significance. Thus, for the 1979–2009 interval, all observational trends at both the LT and MT tropical layers are now significantly below the average model trend. We thank H. McCullough and J. Christy for their assistance.

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