Mobile measurement of methane emissions from natural gas developments in Northeastern British Columbia, Canada
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Abstract. North American leaders recently committed to reducing methane emissions from the oil and gas sector, but information on current emissions from Canadian unconventional developments is lacking. This study examined the incidence of methane in an area of unconventional natural gas development in northwestern Canada. In August to September 2015 we completed almost 8000 km of vehicle-based survey campaigns on public roads dissecting developments that mainly access the Montney formation in northeastern British Columbia. Six survey routes were repeated 3–6 times and brought us past over 1600 unique well pads and facilities developed by more than 50 different operators. To attribute on-road plumes to infrastructural sources we used gas signatures of residual excess concentrations (anomalies above background) less than 500 m downwind from infrastructural sources. All results represent emissions greater than our minimum detection limit of 0.59 g/s at our average detection distance (319 m). Unlike many other developments in the US for which methane measurements have been reported recently, the methane concentrations we measured at surface were close to normal atmospheric levels, except inside natural gas plumes. Roughly 47 % of active wells emitted methane-rich plumes above our minimum detection limit. Abandoned and under-development well sites also emitted methane-rich plumes, but the incidence rate was below that of producing wells. Multiple sites that pre-date the recent unconventional Montney development were found to be emitting, and in general we observed that older infrastructure tended to emit more often (per unit) with comparable severity in terms of measured excess concentrations on-road. We also observed emissions from facilities of various types that were highly repeatable. Emission patterns in this area were best explained by infrastructure age and type. Extrapolating our results across the Montney development, we estimate that the emission sources we located (emitting at a rate > 0.59 g/s) contribute more than 111,800 tonnes of methane annually to the atmosphere. This value exceeds reported bottom-up estimates of 78,000 tonnes for all oil and gas sector sources in British Columbia, of which the Montney represents about 55 % of production. The results also demonstrate that mobile surveys could be used to exhaustively screen developments for super-emitters, because without our intensive 6-fold replication we could have used single-pass sampling to screen 80 % of Montney-related infrastructure. This is the first bottom-up study of fugitive emissions in the Canadian energy sector, and these results can be used to inform policy development in an era of methane emission reduction efforts.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,003 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,002 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,002 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».