Attribution of Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) ozone radiative fluxbias from satellites

Abstract. The top-of-atmosphere (TOA) outgoing longwave flux over the 9.6-μm ozone band is a fundamental quantity for understanding chemistry-climate coupling. However, observed TOA fluxes are hard to estimate as they exhibit considerable variability in space and time that depend on the distributions of clouds, ozone (O3), water vapor (H2O), air temperature (Ta), and surface temperature (Ts). Benchmarking present day fluxes and quantifying the relative influence of their drivers is the first step for estimating climate feedbacks from ozone radiative forcing and predicting its evolution. To that end, we construct observational instantaneous radiative kernels (IRKs) representing the sensitivities of the TOA flux in the 9.6-μm ozone band to the vertical distribution of geophysical variables, including O3, H2O, Ta, and Ts based upon the Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) measurements. Applying these kernels to present-day simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project as compared to a 2006 reanalysis assimilating satellite observations, we show that the models have large differences in TOA flux, attributable to different geophysical variables. In particular, model simulations continue to diverge from observations in the tropics, as reported in previous studies of the Atmospheric Chemistry Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (ACCMIP) simulations. The principal culprits are tropical mid and upper tropospheric ozone followed by tropical lower tropospheric H2O. Five models out of the eight studied here have TOA flux biases exceeding 100 mWm−2 attributable to tropospheric ozone bias. Another set of five models flux biases over 50 mWm−2 due to H2O. On the other hand, Ta radiative bias is negligible in all models (no more than 30 mWm−2). We found that AM3 and CMAM have the lowest TOA flux biases globally but are a result of cancellation of difference processes. Overall, the multi-model ensemble mean bias is −132.9 ± 98 mWm−2, indicating that they are too atmospherically opaque thereby reducing sensitivity of TOA flux to ozone and potentially an underestimate of ozone radiative forcing. We find that the inter-model TOA OLR difference is well anti-correlated with their ozone band flux bias. This suggests that there is significant radiative compensation in the calculation of model outgoing longwave radiation.

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