Updates on malaria epidemiology and profile in Cabo Verde from 2010 to 2019: The goal of Elimination
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Abstract Background Cabo Verde is one of the E-2020 Initiative, a group of 21 countries identified by World Health Organization (WHO) in 2016 as having the potential to eliminate malaria by 2020. Located in west Africa, Cabo Verde is an archipelago consisting of nine inhabited islands. Malaria has been endemic since the settlement of the islands during the during the 16th century and is poised to achieve malaria elimination in January 2021. The aim of this research is to characterise the trends in malaria cases from 2010 to 2019 as the country transitions from endemic transmission to elimination and prevention of reintroduction phases. Methods All confirmed malaria cases reported to the Ministry of Health between 2010 and 2019 were extracted and secondary analysis was conducted. Variables collected as part of the routine reporting for each confirmed case included age, sex, municipality of residence, and if classified as imported, the reported country of travel within the past 30 days, providing the presumed origin of infection. Trends in reported cases were visualised and logistic regression used to identify risk factors associated with imported malaria. Results A total of 819 malaria cases were reported in the country between 2010 and 2019, the majority of which were Plasmodium falciparum. Overall, 554 (67.6%) and 263 (32.1%) of cases were reported as locally acquired and imported, respectively, with the last locally acquired case reported in January 2018. Only two (0.20%) of the cases were classified as introduced, a single case in each of 2018 and 2019. Of the locally acquired cases, 80.5% (446/554) were reported during the outbreak in 2017. The majority of malaria cases were identified in males (766; 73.3%) or those aged 20 years or older (658; 79.7%). The adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of cases being imported was 3.73 (95% CI: 2.47–4.99) in the post epidemic period compared with the pre-epidemic period and reported on Sao Vicente island (AOR = 6.96, 95% CI = 4.40–9.53, p < 0.0001) compared to Boa Vista. Conclusions Cabo Verde has made substantial gains in reducing malaria burden in the country over the past decade and are poised to achieve elimination in 2020. However, the high mobility between the islands and continental Africa where malaria is still highly endemic, means there is a constant risk of malaria reintroduction. Characterisation of imported cases provides useful insight for program and enables better evidence-based decision-making to ensure malaria elimination can be sustained.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,003 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,003 | 0,002 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,003 | 0,001 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».