Kenneth Boulding on Possible Consequences of Increased Life Expectancy
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Scientific advances over recent years have had a marked effect in lowering mortality at very old ages in the developed countries, opening the prospect of routine achievement of significantly extended life spans. Some immediate responses to these trends, such as a rethinking of the actuarial assumptions underlying social security system finances, have already been required. But in the longer run many other and more fundamental accommodations would also be called for. In the paper reproduced below, from 1965, Kenneth Boulding points to some of these by means of a casual thought experiment in which longevity is set at 200 years. A striking misfit emerges between the new age distribution of the population, assumed stationary, and the age‐specific role structure that the society had evolved, forcing adjustments in the latter. Age patterns of education and working life, life‐cycle savings and consumption behavior, and intergenerational economic relations would be strongly affected. While the extreme longevity assumption (although modest compared to the Struldbrugs of Gulliver's Travels) underlines the lightheartedness of the exercise, the issues are real ones. The paper, entitled “The menace of Methuselah: Possible consequences of increased life expectancy,” was originally an address to the Washington Academy of Sciences in March 1965 and published in October of the same year in the Academy's Journal (Vol. 55, no. 7, pp. 171‐179). It is reproduced here by permission of the Academy. Some minor arithmetical corrections to the savings calculations have been made. Kenneth E. Boulding (1910–93) was a distinguished economist and social scientist. Born in England, he was educated at Oxford and the University of Chicago, and subsequently taught at a series of North American universities, the longest periods at the University of Michigan and University of Colorado. He was president of the American Economic Association, as well as of a number of other learned societies, but increasingly came to play a maverick role in his profession. His prolific writings–some 40 books and hundreds of articles–spanned a wide range of subjects: Keynesian theory, the grants economy, evolutionary economics, and beyond economics to general systems theory, resources and ecology, environmental quality, social justice, and (a life‐long concern) peace and disarmament. Demographers often know of Boulding through his much‐reprinted article “Toward a general theory of growth” (Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, Vol. 19, no. 3, 1953). Another of his papers appeared in PDR 14 (Suppl.), 1988. Six volumes of his Collected Papers were published by Colorado Associated University Press, Boulder, CO, over 1971–85.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,002 | 0,010 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,002 | 0,003 |
| Communication savante | 0,002 | 0,003 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,004 | 0,004 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,009 | 0,002 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».