Enabling Long-term Predictions and Cost-benefit Analysis Related to Housing Adaptation Needs for a Population Aging in Place: Protocol for a Simulation Study
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
BACKGROUND: Policies that promote aging in place are common in Sweden and many other countries. However, the current housing stock cannot sufficiently accommodate a population aging in place considering how functional capacity and housing needs change as people age. To be suitable for all regardless of their functional ability, housing should be designed or adapted to facilitate the performance of activities of daily living. Long-term planning and plausible projections of development 20 to 30 years into the future are needed. OBJECTIVE: The overall aim is to develop simulation models that enable long-term predictions and analysis of potential consequences in terms of societal gains and costs for different large-scale measures and interventions in the ordinary housing stock. METHODS: This study is designed as a simulation study and will broadly apply health impact assessment methods in collaboration with five municipalities in Sweden. Individual interviews and research circles were used to identify current and prioritize potential new policies to improve the accessibility of the housing stock. We will run a series of simulations based on an estimated willingness to pay from discussions with the municipalities. Two to three different prioritized policies will be compared simultaneously using Markov cohort analysis to estimate the potential costs and health impact on the population. Using data from a systematic review and existing population-based data sets with individual-level data on home and health variables, we will calculate parameter estimates for the relations between housing accessibility and health outcomes. The potential impact of selected policy interventions will be estimated in several microsimulations representing people living in the community. Sensitivity analyses will be conducted for each simulation. RESULTS: As of April 2022, open access data was collected, and a systematic review was underway and expected to be completed by November 2022. Collaboration with five municipalities was established in autumn 2020. In spring 2021, the municipalities developed a list of prioritized policy interventions to be tested and used in the simulation models. Inventories of barrier frequencies in ordinary housing started in spring 2022 and are expected to be completed in autumn 2022. Data gathering and analyses for simulation inputs will be completed during 2022 followed by the simulation modeling analyses to be completed in 2023. CONCLUSIONS: Improved accessibility of the ordinary housing stock has the potential to maintain or improve the health of the aging population. This study will generate tools that enable long-term predictions and reliable cost-benefit estimates related to the housing adaptation needs for a population aging in place, thus providing support for the best-informed policy decisions. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/39032.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,046 | 0,065 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,004 | 0,002 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,003 | 0,007 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,002 | 0,002 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,003 | 0,002 |
| Communication savante | 0,003 | 0,002 |
| Science ouverte | 0,004 | 0,004 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,005 | 0,007 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,092 | 0,012 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».