Bayesian synthetic prediction of state level poverty using Indian Household Consumer Expenditure Survey Data1
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Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Goal 1 of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, adopted by all United Nations member States in 2015, is to end poverty in all forms everywhere. The major indicator to monitor the goal is the so-called headcount ratio or poverty rate, i.e., proportion or percentage of people under poverty. In India, where nearly a quarter of population still live below the poverty line, monitoring of poverty needs greater attention, more frequently at shorter intervals (e.g., every year) to evaluate the effectiveness of planning, programs and actions taken by the governments to eradicate poverty. Poverty rate computation for India depends on two basic ingredients – rural and urban poverty lines for different states and union territories and average Monthly Per-capita Consumer Expenditure (MPCE). While MPCE can be obtained every year, usually from the Consumer Expenditure Survey on shorter schedules with a few exceptions where the information is obtained from another survey, determination of poverty lines is a highly complex, costly and time-consuming process. Poverty lines are essentially determined by a panel of experts who draws their conclusions partly based on their subjective opinions and partly based on data from multiple sources. The main data source the panel uses is the Consumer Expenditure Survey data with a detailed schedule, which are usually available every five years or so. In this paper, we undertake a feasibility study to explore if estimates of headcount ratios or Poverty Ratios in intervening years can be provided in absence of poverty lines by relating poverty ratios with average MPCE through a statistical model. Then we can use the fitted model to predict poverty rates for intervening years based on average MPCE. We explore a few in this work models using Bayesian methodology. The reason behind calling this ‘synthetic prediction’ rests on the synthetic assumption of model invariance over years, often used in the small area literature. While the data-based assessment of our Bayesian synthetic prediction procedure is encouraging, there is a great potential for improvements on the models presented in this paper, e.g., by incorporating more auxiliary data as they become available. In any case, we expect our preliminary work in this important area will encourage researchers to think about statistical modeling as a possible way to at least partially solve a problem for which no objective solution is currently available.
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Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,003 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découle