Clinical and biological predictors of response to standardised paediatric colitis therapy (PROTECT): a multicentre inception cohort study
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Résumé
Background: Lack of evidence-based outcomes data leads to uncertainty in developing treatment regimens in children who are newly diagnosed with ulcerative colitis. We hypothesised that pretreatment clinical, transcriptomic, and microbial factors predict disease course. Methods: In this inception cohort study, we recruited paediatric patients aged 4?17 years with newly diagnosed ulcerative colitis from 29 centres in the USA and Canada. Patients initially received standardised mesalazine or corticosteroids, with pre-established criteria for escalation to immunomodulators (ie, thiopurines) or anti-tumor necrosis factor-à (TNFà) therapy. We used RNA sequencing to define rectal gene expression before treatment, and 16S sequencing to characterise rectal and faecal microbiota. The primary outcome was week 52 corticosteroid-free remission with no therapy beyond mesalazine. We assessed factors associated with the primary outcome using logistic regression models of the per-protocol population. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01536535. Findings: Between July 10, 2012, and April 21, 2015, of 467 patients recruited, 428 started medical therapy, of whom 400 (93%) were evaluable at 52 weeks and 386 (90%) completed the study period with no protocol violations. 150 (38%) of 400 participants achieved week 52 corticosteroid-free remission, of whom 147 (98%) were taking mesalazine and three (2%) were taking no medication. 74 (19%) of 400 were escalated to immunomodulators alone, 123 (31%) anti-TNFà therapy, and 25 (6%) colectomy. Low baseline clinical severity, high baseline haemoglobin, and week 4 clinical remission were associated with achieving week 52 corticosteroid-free remission (n=386, logistic model area under the curve [AUC] 0ú70, 95% CI 0ú65?0ú75; specificity 77%, 95% CI 71?82). Baseline severity and remission by week 4 were validated in an independent cohort of 274 paediatric patients with newly diagnosed ulcerative colitis. After adjusting for clinical predictors, an antimicrobial peptide gene signature (odds ratio [OR] 0ú57, 95% CI 0ú39?0ú81; p=0ú002) and abundance of Ruminococcaceae (OR 1ú43, 1ú02?2ú00; p=0ú04), and Sutterella (OR 0ú81, 0ú65?1ú00; p=0ú05) were independently associated with week 52 corticosteroid-free remission. Interpretation: Our findings support the utility of initial clinical activity and treatment response by 4 weeks to predict week 52 corticosteroid-free remission with mesalazine alone in children who are newly diagnosed with ulcerative colitis. The development of personalised clinical and biological signatures holds the promise of informing ulcerative colitis therapeutic decisions. Funding: US National Institutes of Health.
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Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découle