How Well Can Current Climate Models Simulate the Connection of the Early Spring Aleutian Low to the Following Winter ENSO?

Abstract A recent study revealed an impact of the intensity of early spring Aleutian low (AL) on the succeeding winter ENSO. This study examines the ability of 41 climate models that participated in CMIP6 in simulating the early spring AL–winter ENSO connection. It is shown that there exists a large diversity among the models in simulating this AL–ENSO linkage. A number of models capture well the observed AL–ENSO connection and the associated physical processes. However, the AL–ENSO relation in several models is opposite to the observed. Diversity of the AL–ENSO connection is related to the spread in the spatial structure of AL-related atmospheric anomalies over the North Pacific. In the models that capture the observed AL–ENSO connection, weakened AL induces an anomalous anticyclone over the northern middle and high latitudes and an anomalous cyclone over the subtropical North Pacific. The resultant westerly wind anomalies over the tropical western-central Pacific (TWCP) induce an El Niño sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern in the following winter. By contrast, in the models with the AL–ENSO relation opposite to the observations, the AL-associated anomalous anticyclone over the North Pacific extends too southward. As such, the subtropical North Pacific is dominated by northeasterly wind anomalies and SST cooling. The subtropical North Pacific SST cooling induces easterly wind anomalies over the TWCP via wind–evaporation–SST feedback, and leads to a La Niña anomaly pattern in the following winter. The spread in the spatial structure of the AL-associated atmospheric anomalies over the North Pacific is partly due to the diversity in the amplitude of the climatological mean flow. Significance Statement A recent study suggested that variation of the AL intensity in early spring could exert a significant impact on the following winter ENSO. It indicated that inclusion of the early spring AL signal could improve the prediction of ENSO and to some extent help reduce the spring predictability barrier of ENSO. To employ the AL as a predictor in the ENSO prediction and forecast, the current climate model should have the ability to simulate realistically the early spring AL variation as well as the physical process linking the early spring AL with the subsequent winter ENSO. Hence, this study examines the performance of the current coupled climate models that participated in the phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in simulating the linkage between the early spring AL and the following winter ENSO. We show that there exists a large diversity among the CMIP6 models in simulating the early spring AL–winter ENSO connection. A number of models capture well the observed AL–ENSO connection and the associated physical processes. However, the AL–ENSO relation in several models is opposite to the observed. The factors leading to the spread are further examined. Results of this study would have implications in improving our understanding of the impact of extratropical atmospheric forcing on the ENSO and improving the seasonal forecasting of the ENSO.

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