Potential Utility of a Climate-Sensitive Structural Stand Density Management Model for Red Pine Crop Planning
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
The objectives of this study were to evaluate and exemplify the potential utility of a climate-sensitive modular-based structural stand density management model (SSDMM) developed for red pine (Pinus resinosa Aiton) in crop planning decision making. Firstly, the model’s predictive ability was assessed using a retrospective validation approach without consideration of climate change effects. Although limited in scope and applicability, the preliminary results revealed that the magnitude of the mean prediction error for the principal determinates governing stand development did not exceed ±15%. Secondly, the potential utility of the model was illustrated within a spatial-based forest management planning context for a range of climate change scenarios. These exemplifications included three conventional crop plan simulations (initial spacing (IS), IS plus one commercial thinning (CT) treatment, and IS plus two CTs) developing under three climate change scenarios (1971–2000 climate norms, and 4.5 and 8.5 representative concentration pathways) over 75-year rotations (2022–2097) at three geographically diverse locales (north-eastern (Kirkland Lake), north-central (Thessalon), and north-western (Thunder Bay) Ontario, Canada). Resultant developmental indices and (or) productivity metrics were contrasted in terms of (1) regional-specific differences in temporal stand dynamical patterns and rotational yields with increasing climatic change severity, and (2) silvicultural effectiveness of the crop plans within and across locales for each climate change scenario. Climate-wise, although the results revealed marginal regional differences across a multitude of rotational outcome metrics, declines in mean tree size and merchantable volume productivity, and most importantly utility pole production within unthinned plantations, were among the most consequential and consistent negative outcomes associated with climate-induced site productivity declines. Silviculturally, crop plans that included thinning treatments relative to their counterparts that did not, yielded trees of greater mean size and were able to maintain utility pole production status while not achieving similar levels of site occupancy or volumetric productivity. Management-wise, maintenance of pole production status along with concurrent increases in fiscal worth even in light of climate change outweighed the marginal decline in volumetric productivity that was associated with the thinning regimes. In summary, the validation results provided a measure of predictive performance relative to the underlying calibration data set whereas the exemplifications illustrated the model’s potential operational utility in spatial-based forest management planning. For managers aspiring to maintain the historical productivity legacy of red pine through optimal density management decision making while acknowledging prediction uncertainty when forecasting stand development trajectories under climate change, the SSDMM provides an optional decision-support tool for designing climate-smart crop plans during the Anthropocene.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».