DOP56 Long-term disease progression and resective surgery rates in Crohn’s disease over different therapeutic eras – a population-based study from western Hungary between 1977–2020, data from the Veszprem county cohort
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Abstract Background Few population-based studies have investigated the long-term surgery rates of Crohn’s disease (CD). The present study is a continuation of the Veszprem IBD population based cohort with a follow-up since 1977. Our aim was to analyze the long-term disease course and surgery rates over different therapeutic eras in a prospective population-based database from Veszprem Province, including incident CD patients. Methods Patient inclusion was between January 1, 1977 and December 31, 2018; follow-up ended December 31, 2020. Both in-hospital and outpatient records were collected and comprehensively reviewed at diagnosis and during clinical follow-up. Surgery rates were examined in three different eras based on time of diagnosis: cohort-A, 1977-1995; cohort-B, 1996-2008; and cohort-C, 2009-2018. Results Data of 946 incident CD patients were analyzed (male/female: 496/450; median age at diagnosis:28 years(y) [IQR: 22-40]), with a median of 15y(IQR 9-21) follow-up.Table 1. Overall immunosuppressive therapy use was increasing by time (48.0%/62.4%/65.5%), as well as the probability of biological therapy initiation within 5 years of diagnosis (0.0±0%/7.3±1.2%/22.7±2.2%) in cohorts A/B/C. Figure 1. The cumulative probability of disease behavior progression in patients with luminal (B1) behavior into stenosing or penetrating phenotype (B2/B3) was 27.1±5.3%/ 21.5±2.5%/ 11.3±2.2% in cohorts A/B/C after 5 years (pLogRank<0.001). Figure 2. The cumulative probability of resective surgery in the total population was 34.2±1.6% after 10 years, 44.9±2.0% after 20 years, and 61.9±4.2% after 30 years. The cumulative probability of first resective surgery between cohorts A/B/C were as follows: 28.7±3.7%/ 26.3±2.1%/ 28.1±2.4% after 5 years; 39.4±4.0%/ 32.6±2.2%/ 33.0±2.7% after 10 years; and 54.5±4.1%/ 41.4±2.6% (cohorts A/B) after 20 years. There were no statistically significant differences in surgery rates between the cohorts overall [pLogRank=0.055], however a notable decrease in long-term (20y) surgery rates was observed comparing cohorts B and C vs. cohort A.Figure 3. A cox-regression multivariate analysis showed that stenosing or penetrating disease (B2/B3) behavior (HR 4.52; 95%CI 3.60-5.68; p<0.001) and ileal (L1) location at diagnosis (HR 1.30; 95%CI 1.05-1.61; p=0.016) were independent predictors of resective surgery.Table 2. Conclusion Disease behavior progression decreased, however no differences in resective surgery risk at 5 and 10 years from diagnosis have been observed in incident CD patients despite the increasing use of immunosuppressives and biologicals in this population based cohort. However, a decrease is shown in long term (20y) surgery risk comparing the earliest cohort to latter ones with higher immunosuppressive and biological use.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».