P309 Accuracy of PanMayo endoscopic score in predicting long-term disease outcomes in ulcerative colitis– a promising scoring system
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Abstract Background Ulcerative colitis (UC) is a systemic immune-mediated disease that affects the colon continuously. Colonoscopy plays a crucial role in management of UC that helps to assess mucosal healing objectively along the colon. Different scoring systems are available to assess severity, however most of them does not take into consideration of disease extent. Extension modified (PanMayo) Mayo endoscopic subscore (MES) system has been shown to correlate with UCEIS and Riley scores and calprotectin. Our study aimed to assess the predictive power and accuracy of PanMayo score compared to MES, UCEIS and Dublin to predict mid- and long-term disease outcomes. Methods This is retrospective, two-center study. UC patients, who underwent colonoscopy due to any reason between 2016 and 2018, were consecutively enrolled. PanMayo, MES, UCEIS and Dublin scores and additionally the Nancy histology score (where available) were recorded with clinical and demographical data at baseline. Disease flare, need for change in therapy (incl. initiation of biologicals, need for systemic steroids), hospitalisations and colectomy were tracked amongst patients with clinical remission (pMayo<2) during an at least 3-years follow-up to assess predictive value of score systems. Log-rank, Cox regression analysis and Chi2 tests were used to analyse outcomes and Kaplan Meier curves were plotted. Results A total of 250 UC patients (male ratio: 0.45, median age 45 (IQR) 22.3 years) were enrolled with 156 (male ratio 0.49; mean age 46 IQR 20.8 years, Table 1.) of UC patients having baseline clinical remission. PanMayo, MES, and Dublin scores were positively associated with risk of disease flare (Figure 1.; p=0.002, p<0.01, p=0.003). Increasing MES score was coupled with risk of relapse (MES0=26.7%, MES1=53.1% and MES2-3=47.6%; p=0.008). PanMayo score (above 12 points), but not MES or UCEIS, was associated with the need of new biological (Figure 2.; 66.7% vs. 21.7%; p<0.001) and treatment escalation (33.3 vs. 11.5%; p=0.018), similar trend was found for the Dublin score for need for new biologicals. There was a strong trend for PanMayo to predict need for hospital admission (p=0.06). All scores were strongly associated with need for systemic corticosteroids. Colectomy rates were low. Nancy score showed only a trend to predict risk of clinical flare and need for corticosteroids. Conclusion Our study suggests that combined endoscopic assessment of the extent and severity may be more accurate in predicting disease outcomes in UC in clinical remission. PanMayo scores may be an alternative of the existing scoring system and was associated more granularly with disease outcomes. In addition, outcomes were different in patients with initial MES 0 and 1 scores.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,002 | 0,004 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,002 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».