Epidemiological Characteristics of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection Among Hospitalized Children With Acute Respiratory Tract Infections From 2014 to 2022 in a Hospital in Hubei Province, China: Longitudinal Surveillance Study
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
BACKGROUND: Longitudinal studies characterizing the epidemic trend of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in Hubei Province are scarce. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to depict the dynamics of the RSV epidemic among hospitalized children with acute respiratory tract infections (ARTIs) during 2014 to 2022 in the Maternal and Child Health Hospital of Hubei Province and investigate the influence of the 2-child policy and the COVID-19 pandemic on RSV prevalence. METHODS: The medical records and testing results of hospitalized children with ARTI from January 2014 to June 2022 were extracted. Nasopharyngeal samples were tested with direct immunofluorescence assay. Detection rates of RSV were categorized according to the diagnosis of patients: (1) overall, (2) upper respiratory tract infection (URTI), and (3) lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI). Poisson regression models were used to investigate the association between RSV detection rate and age, gender, or diagnosis. The detection rates of RSV before and after the implementation of the universal 2-child policy were compared using a Poisson regression model. Multiple comparisons of RSV detection rates were conducted among 3 stages of the COVID-19 pandemic using chi-square tests. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average was performed to predict RSV behaviors from February 2020 to June 2020 under the assumption of a non-COVID-19 scenario. RESULTS: Among 75,128 hospitalized children with ARTI, 11.1% (8336/75,128) were RSV-positive. Children aged <1 year had higher detection rates than older children (4204/26,498, 15.9% vs 74/5504, 1.3%; P<.001), and children with LRTI had higher detection rates than children with URTI (7733/53,145, 14.6% vs 603/21,983, 2.7%; P<.001). Among all the children, a clear seasonal pattern of the RSV epidemic was observed before 2021. Most of the highest detection rates were concentrated between December and February. The yearly detection rate of RSV remained at a relatively low level (about 8%) from 2014 to 2017, then increased to 12% and above from 2018. The highest monthly detection rate was in December 2018 (539/1493, 36.1%), and the highest yearly rate was in 2021 (1372/9328, 14.7%). There was a moderate increase in the RSV detection rate after the 2-child policy was implemented (before: 860/10,446, 8.2% vs after: 4920/43,916, 11.2%; P<.001). The largest increase, by 5.83%, occurred in children aged <1 year. The RSV epidemic level decreased sharply in the short term after the COVID-19 outbreak (detection rate before: 1600/17,010, 9.4% vs after: 32/1135, 2.8%; P<.001). The largest decrease, by 12.0%, occurred in children aged <1 year, but a rebounding epidemic occurred after 2020 (680/5744, 11.8%; P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: Children have been experiencing increased prevalence of RSV since 2018 based on surveillance from a hospital in Hubei Province with a large sample size. The 2-child policy might have increased the RSV prevalence, and the COVID-19 epidemic had a temporary inhibitory effect on RSV transmission. Vaccines against RSV are urgently needed.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».