Prediction of future curve angle using prior radiographs in previously untreated idiopathic scoliosis: natural history from age 6 to after the end of growth (SOSORT 2022 award winner)
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Abstract Purpose Treatment selection for idiopathic scoliosis is informed by the risk of curve progression. Previous models predicting curve progression lacked validation, did not include the full growth/severity spectrum or included treated patients. The objective was to develop and validate models to predict future curve angles using clinical data collected only at, or both at and prior to, an initial specialist consultation in idiopathic scoliosis. Methods This is an analysis of 2317 patients with idiopathic scoliosis between 6 and 25 years old. Patients were previously untreated and provided at least one prior radiograph prospectively collected at first consult. Radiographs were re-measured blinded to the predicted outcome: the maximum Cobb angle on the last radiograph while untreated. Linear mixed-effect models were used to examine the effect of data from the first available visit (age, sex, maximum Cobb angle, Risser, and curve type) and from other visits while untreated (maximum Cobb angle) and time (from the first available radiograph to prediction) on the Cobb angle outcome. Interactions of the first available angle with time, of time with sex, and time with Risser were also tested. Results We included 2317 patients (83% of females) with 3255 prior X-rays where 71% had 1, 21.1% had 2, and 7.5% had 3 or more. Mean age was 13.9 ± 2.2yrs and 81% had AIS. Curve types were: 50% double, 26% lumbar/thoracolumbar-lumbar, 16% thoracic, and 8% other. Cobb angle at the first available X-ray was 20 ± 10° (0–80) vs 29 ± 13° (6–122) at the outcome visit separated by 28 ± 22mths. In the model using data at and prior to the specialist consult, larger values of the following variables predicted larger future curves: first available Cobb angle, Cobb angle on other previous X-ray, and time ( with Time 2 and Time 3 ) to the target prediction . Larger values on the following variables predicted a smaller future Cobb angle: Risser and age at the first available X-ray, time*Risser and time*female sex interactions. Cross-validation found a median error of 4.5 o with 84% predicted within 10°. Similarly, the model using only data from the first specialist consult had a median error of 5.5 o with 80% of cases within 10° and included: maximum Cobb angle at first specialist consult, Time, Time 2 , age, curve type, and both interactions. Conclusions The models can help clinicians predict how much curves would progress without treatment at future timepoints of their choice using simple variables. Predictions can inform treatment prescription or show families why no treatment is recommended. The nonlinear effects of time account for the rapid increase in curve angle at the beginning of growth and the slowed progression after maturity. These validated models predicted future Cobb angle with good accuracy in untreated idiopathic scoliosis over the full growth spectrum.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».