66 Randel Lecture: Ensuring a Leading Role for USA Animal Protein in Our World’s Food Future
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Abstract Global population is expected to increase by 2.5 billion people by 2072 according to UN projections made recently. Africa will lead growth by adding.8 billion people to its continent (147% increase), and 45 of 50 global countries with greatest percentage growth will be in Africa. Europe’s population will decline by an estimated 100 million people (13% decline), Asia’s population will increase by 12%, and North and South America will increase about 20%. North and South America have 3- to 4-fold more cropland per capita than Africa, but East and South Asia have about one half as much as Africa. Coincidental with this growth in population, changes in climate will reduce yields of food crops in equatorial regions and in regions with shortages of water. Simultaneously, climate change will create an estimated 1.5 billion hectares of usable cropland that currently does not have a growing season sufficiently long to produce a crop, virtually all of this will be in northern Canada and Russia. Diets that include animal products feed more people than vegan-only diets, because essential amino acids and limiting nutrients are provided more efficiently through animal products. Among various diets, dairy and vegetable, egg and vegetable, and omnivore and vegetable diets can feed more people than vegan diets. Animal products must be produced efficiently and have limited detrimental impacts on environments and ecosystems. Currently, GHGs per unit of animal food are 7-fold greater in Africa than in North America and Europe, because yields per animal and output per hectare are up to 50-fold greater in Europe and North America. Two primary goals for the next 50 years are to improve outputs per animal and per hectare in poorly productive regions, and to produce affordable and acceptable animal products that can be exported to these regions from regions that have more land and produce products with low environmental impacts. A major challenge in improving productivity in African countries will be to alter cultural practices that are linked to inefficient production of animal products. Overeating is an issue in many countries, and it will be important for people in these regions to alter diets to reduce obesity and over-consumption of calories and protein. Historically, diets change over time, and during the last century there has been a significant increase in intake of plant-based products in the USA and other countries. Unfortunately, the primary plant-based products that make up more of our diet today are oils and sweeteners, both of which contribute to increased obesity. Thus, simply eating more plant-based products does not guarantee a healthier diet.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,003 | 0,004 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,003 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,005 | 0,004 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,003 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,006 | 0,010 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,066 | 0,025 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».