Comparing SARS-CoV-2 testing positivity rates and COVID-19 impact among different isolation strategies: a rapid systematic review and a modelling study
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Background: The optimal isolation duration for patients with COVID-19 remains unclear. To support an update of World Health Organization (WHO)'s Living Clinical management guidelines for COVID-19 (https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/WHO-2019-nCoV-clinical-2022.2), this rapid systematic review and modelling study addresses the effects of different isolation periods for preventing onward transmission leading to hospitalisation and death among secondary cases. Methods: We searched the WHO COVID-19 database for studies up to Feb 27, 2023. We included clinical studies of any design with COVID-19 patients confirmed by PCR test or rapid antigen test addressing the impact of any isolation strategy on preventing the spread of COVID-19. There were no restrictions on publication language, publication status, age of patients, severity of COVID-19, variants of SARS-COV-2, comorbidity of patients, isolation location, or co-interventions. We performed random-effects meta-analyses to summarise testing rates of persistent test positivity rates after COVID-19 infection. We performed pre-specified subgroup analyses by symptom status and meta-regression analyses for the proportion of fully vaccinated patients. We developed a model to compare the effects of three isolation strategies on onward transmission leading to hospitalisation and death. The three isolation strategies were (1) 5-day isolation, with no test to release; (2) removal of isolation based on a negative test; and (3) 10-day isolation, with no test to release. The model incorporates estimates of test positivity rates, effective reproduction number, isolation adherence, false negative rate, and hospitalisation rates or case fatality rates. To assess the impact of varying isolation adherence and false negative rates on rapid antigen testing, we conducted some sensitivity analyses. We used the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach to assess certainty of evidence. The protocol is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42022348626). Findings: Fifteen studies addressing persistent test positivity rates including 4188 patients proved eligible. Asymptomatic patients (27.1%, 95% CI: 15.8%-40.0%) had a significantly lower rapid antigen test positive rate than symptomatic patients (68.1%, 95% CI: 40.6%-90.3%) on day 5. The rapid antigen test positive rate was 21.5% (95% CI: 0-64.1%; moderate certainty) on day 10. Our modelling study suggested that the risk difference (RD) for asymptomatic patients between 5-day isolation and 10-day isolation in hospitalisations (23 more hospitalisations of secondary cases per 10,000 patients isolated, 95% uncertainty interval (UI) 14 more to 33 more) and mortality (5 more per 10,000 patients, 95% UI 1 to 9 more) of secondary cases proved very small (very low certainty). For symptomatic patients, the potential impact of 5- versus 10-day isolation was much greater in hospitalisations (RD 186 more per 10,000 patients, 95% UI 113 more to 276 more; very low certainty) and mortality (RD 41 more per 10,000 patients, 95% UI 11 more to 73 more; very low certainty). There may be little or no difference between removing isolation based on a negative antigen test and 10-day isolation in the onward transmission leading to hospitalisation or death, but the average isolation period (mean difference -3 days) will be shorter for the removal of isolation based on a negative antigen test (moderate certainty). Interpretation: 5 days versus 10 days of isolation in asymptomatic patients may result in a small amount of onward transmission and negligible hospitalisation and mortality; however, in symptomatic patients, the level of onward transmission is concerning and may lead to high hospitalisation and death rates. The evidence is, however, very uncertain. Funding: This work was done in collaboration with WHO.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,005 | 0,014 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,008 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».