Hierarchical automated machine learning (AutoML) for advanced unconventional reservoir characterization

Abstract Recent advances in machine learning (ML) have transformed the landscape of energy exploration, including hydrocarbon, CO2 storage, and hydrogen. However, building competent ML models for reservoir characterization necessitates specific in-depth knowledge in order to fine-tune the models and achieve the best predictions, limiting the accessibility of machine learning in geosciences. To mitigate this issue, we implemented the recently emerged automated machine learning (AutoML) approach to perform an algorithm search for conducting an unconventional reservoir characterization with a more optimized and accessible workflow than traditional ML approaches. In this study, over 1000 wells from Alberta’s Athabasca Oil Sands were analyzed to predict various key reservoir properties such as lithofacies, porosity, volume of shale, and bitumen mass percentage. Our proposed workflow consists of two stages of AutoML predictions, including (1) the first stage focuses on predicting the volume of shale and porosity by using conventional well log data, and (2) the second stage combines the predicted outputs with well log data to predict the lithofacies and bitumen percentage. The findings show that out of the ten different models tested for predicting the porosity (78% in accuracy), the volume of shale (80.5%), bitumen percentage (67.3%), and lithofacies classification (98%), distributed random forest, and gradient boosting machine emerged as the best models. When compared to the manually fine-tuned conventional machine learning algorithms, the AutoML-based algorithms provide a notable improvement on reservoir property predictions, with higher weighted average f1-scores of up to 15–20% in the classification problem and 5–10% in the adjusted-R2 score for the regression problems in the blind test dataset, and it is achieved only after ~ 400 s of training and testing processes. In addition, from the feature ranking extraction technique, there is a good agreement with domain experts regarding the most significant input parameters in each prediction. Therefore, it is evidence that the AutoML workflow has proven powerful in performing advanced petrophysical analysis and reservoir characterization with minimal time and human intervention, allowing more accessibility to domain experts while maintaining the model’s explainability. Integration of AutoML and subject matter experts could advance artificial intelligence technology implementation in optimizing data-driven energy geosciences.

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