Increased risk of decompensated heart failure, acute coronary syndrome, arrythmias and ischemic stroke following exacerbation of COPD: results from a multi-database cohort study

Abstract Introduction The risk of acute coronary syndrome (ACS), stroke or death is increased following an exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, little is known about the risk of decompensated heart failure (HF) or acute arrhythmias. Purpose To quantify the risk of decompensated HF, ACS, acute arrhythmias and ischemic stroke following an exacerbation of COPD. Methods Individuals living with COPD were identified in electronic healthcare and claims databases between 2014 and 2018 in Canada (n=142,787), Germany (n=126,795), the Netherlands (NL, n=8,020) and Spain (n=24,393) and followed until a first non-fatal severe CV event of interest (defined as a hospitalisation for ACS, decompensated HF, arrythmias and ischemic stroke), death or censoring. For each non-fatal severe CV event, a multivariable time-dependent Cox model compared the risk of outcome in the 12 months following the onset of a COPD exacerbation (exposed period, split into granular sub-periods of time) with the risk of outcome during periods outside an exacerbation (unexposed period), providing adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals. Results Mean age ranged between 65-68 years old and more than 50% of patients were male, in all countries (Table 1). Cardiovascular risk factors and diseases were common, with 47% to 91% of patients prescribed cardiovascular medications. During follow-up a non-fatal severe CV event occurred in 11% of patients in Canada, 23% in Germany, 8% in NL and 24% in Spain. Decompensated HF was the most frequent event of interest and accounted for 35% to 47% of non-fatal CV events, except in Canada where ACS accounted for 37% of events. In the first 7 days following an exacerbation, the HR ranged between 2.59 (95% CI, 2.32 - 2.89) and 72.34 (64.43 - 81.22) for decompensated HF; 5.59 (5.09 - 6.15) and 24.57 (21.70 - 27.83) for ACS; 9.16 (8.36 - 10.03) and 31.18 (26.84 - 36.21) for arrythmia (mainly driven by atrial fibrillation); and between 2.22 (1.88 - 2.63) and 16.12 (13.39 - 19.41) for ischemic stroke (Table 2). The risks remained elevated for 6 months for decompensated HF and 30 days for ACS in all countries except NL. Conclusion The risk of all severe CV events, including decompensated HF and arrhythmias, was increased following an exacerbation of COPD. Despite heterogeneity of findings across countries, our results indicate that an exacerbation of COPD should be considered as an important risk factor for cardiopulmonary events, emphasizing the need for optimized COPD management across specialties.

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