Defining the Subtypes of Long COVID and Risk Factors for Prolonged Disease: Population-Based Case-Crossover Study
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
BACKGROUND: There have been over 772 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide. A significant portion of these infections will lead to long COVID (post-COVID-19 condition) and its attendant morbidities and costs. Numerous life-altering complications have already been associated with the development of long COVID, including chronic fatigue, brain fog, and dangerous heart rhythms. OBJECTIVE: We aim to derive an actionable long COVID case definition consisting of significantly increased signs, symptoms, and diagnoses to support pandemic-related clinical, public health, research, and policy initiatives. METHODS: This research employs a case-crossover population-based study using International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-10-CM) data generated at Veterans Affairs medical centers nationwide between January 1, 2020, and August 18, 2022. In total, 367,148 individuals with ICD-10-CM data both before and after a positive COVID-19 test were selected for analysis. We compared ICD-10-CM codes assigned 1 to 7 months following each patient's positive test with those assigned up to 6 months prior. Further, 350,315 patients had novel codes assigned during this window of time. We defined signs, symptoms, and diagnoses as being associated with long COVID if they had a novel case frequency of ≥1:1000, and they significantly increased in our entire cohort after a positive test. We present odds ratios with CIs for long COVID signs, symptoms, and diagnoses, organized by ICD-10-CM functional groups and medical specialty. We used our definition to assess long COVID risk based on a patient's demographics, Elixhauser score, vaccination status, and COVID-19 disease severity. RESULTS: We developed a long COVID definition consisting of 323 ICD-10-CM diagnosis codes grouped into 143 ICD-10-CM functional groups that were significantly increased in our 367,148 patient post-COVID-19 population. We defined 17 medical-specialty long COVID subtypes such as cardiology long COVID. Patients who were COVID-19-positive developed signs, symptoms, or diagnoses included in our long COVID definition at a proportion of at least 59.7% (268,320/449,450, based on a denominator of all patients who were COVID-19-positive). The long COVID cohort was 8 years older with more comorbidities (2-year Elixhauser score 7.97 in the patients with long COVID vs 4.21 in the patients with non-long COVID). Patients who had a more severe bout of COVID-19, as judged by their minimum oxygen saturation level, were also more likely to develop long COVID. CONCLUSIONS: An actionable, data-driven definition of long COVID can help clinicians screen for and diagnose long COVID, allowing identified patients to be admitted into appropriate monitoring and treatment programs. This long COVID definition can also support public health, research, and policy initiatives. Patients with COVID-19 who are older or have low oxygen saturation levels during their bout of COVID-19, or those who have multiple comorbidities should be preferentially watched for the development of long COVID.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,004 | 0,007 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,002 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».