Resilience and adaptation of First Nations communities in Canada to disappearing winter road infrastructure in a changing climate
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
In Canada’s North, winter roads serve as vital lifelines for remote First Nations communities, connecting them to essential resources and services. Constructed over seasonally frozen lakes, rivers, and land, these temporary roads are the only means to transport food, fuel and building materials in large volumes. Winter temperature increases of > 3° C in several provinces have already led to shorter operating seasons and less lake ice thickness, compromising safety, supply, and well-being.Limited meteorological data, a lack of economic or political relevance and the provincial jurisdiction over winter roads have so far discouraged broader research. The few localised studies leave a large knowledge gap with respect to the historical correlation of climate data with winter road seasons and the ability to predict their future. In addition, scientific studies rarely include the existing traditional environmental knowledge without which the adaptive capacity and resilience potential of Indigenous communities cannot be fully understood and realised.Using GIS tools to create a map of all Canadian winter road systems, ERA5 data to analyse location-specific temperature trends, and observations of lake ice thickness to validate a one-dimensional lake model as proxy for freezing trends all aim to explore the natural science base. Surveys and extended interviews in a Manitoba First Nations community complement the study in a decolonising approach, following the concept of Two-Eyed Seeing.Comprehensive mapping shows that most winter road tracks have recently been rerouted to avoid lake surfaces despite the difficult terrestrial underground. Temperature trends are highest in January and vary from +0.4° C in Ontario to +1° C per decade in the Northwest Territories, while modelled ice thickness has decreased between 9% and 14% from 1950 until 2022. Shorter winter road seasons have resulted in food insecurity, educational deprivation, and a housing crisis in many remote First Nations communities, worsened by the intergenerational trauma of residential schools and legislative hurdles to self-determination as defined by the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples.For Indigenous communities in Canada, cryosphere services are not limited to winter road infrastructure, they include traditional food harvesting, cultural connectivity and identity. Without a profound connection to the land, change observations remain inconsequential, adaptive measures and resilience unobtainable.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,002 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».