Generalizing the German Tank Problem
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Notice bibliographique
Résumé
The German Tank Problem dates back to World War II when the Allies used a statistical approach to estimate the number of enemy tanks produced or on the field from observed serial numbers after battles. Assuming that the tanks are labeled consecutively starting from 1, if we observe k tanks from a total of N tanks with the maximum observed tank being m, then the best estimate for N is m(1 + 1/k) - 1. We refer to an estimate as "best" when the estimate is closest to the actual number of tanks. We explore many generalizations; first, we looked at the discrete and continuous one-dimensional case. We attempted to improve the original formula by using different estimators such as the second largest and Lth largest tank, and applied motivation from portfolio theory by seeing if a weighted average of different estimators would produce less variance; however, the original formula, using the largest tank proved to be the best; the continuous case was similar. Then, we looked at the discrete and continuous square and circle variants where we pick pairs instead of points, which were more complex as we dealt with problems in geometry and number theory, such as dealing with curvature issues in the circle, and the problem that not every number is representable as a sum of two squares. In some cases, when we could not derive precise formulas, we derived approximate formulas. For the discrete and continuous square, we tested various statistics, but found that the largest observed component of our pairs is the best statistic to look at; the scaling factor for both cases is (2k+1)/2k. For the circle we used motivation from the equation of a circle; for the continuous case, we looked at the square root of X2+Y2 and for the discrete case, we looked at X2+Y2 and took a square root at the end to estimate for r. Interestingly, the scaling factors, a number, generally a little greater than 1, that we multiplied to scale up to get our estimation, were different for the cases. Lastly, we generalized the problem into L-dimensional squares and circles. The discrete and continuous square proved to be similar to the two-dimensional square problem. However, for the Lth dimensional circle, we had to use formulas for the volume of the L-ball, and had to approximate the number of lattice points inside it. The discrete circle formula was particularly interesting, as there was no L dependence in the formula.
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Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,004 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,002 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,002 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découle