Data and code needed to recreate "Impact of Adjustment for Differential Testing by Age and Sex on Apparent Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Ontario, Canada".
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Data and Stata code for recreation of "Impact of Adjustment for Differential Testing by Age and Sex on Apparent Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Ontario, Canada". For questions about analysis please contact me directly at david.fisman@gmail.com or david.fisman@utoronto.ca.Paper abstract: Surveillance of communicable diseases typically relies on case counts for estimates of risk, and counts can be strongly influenced by testing rates. In the Canadian province of Ontario, testing rates varied markedly by age, sex, geography and time over the course of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We applied a standardization-based approach to test-adjustment to better understand pandemic dynamics from 2020 to 2022, and to better understand when test-adjustment is necessary for accurate estimation of risk. SARS-CoV-2 case counts by age, sex, public health unit and week were obtained from Ontario’s Case and Contact Management system (CCM), which includes all SARS-CoV-2 cases from March 2020 to August 2022. Complete data on testing volumes was obtained from the Ontario Laboratory Information System (OLIS). Case counts were adjusted for under-testing using a previously published standardization-based approach that estimates case numbers that would have been expected if the entire population was tested at the same rate as most-tested age and sex groups. Logistic regression was used to identify threshold testing rates beyond which test-adjustment was unnecessary. Testing rates varied markedly by age, sex, public health unit and pandemic wave. After adjustment for under-testing, overall case counts increased threefold. Adjusted epidemic curves suggested, in contrast to reported case counts, that the first two pandemic waves were equivalent in size, and that there were three distinct pandemic waves in 2022, due to the emergence of Omicron variants. Under-reporting was greatest in children and young males, and varied significantly across public health units, with variation explained partly by testing rates and prevalence of multigenerational households. Test adjustment resulted in little change in the epidemic curve during pandemic waves when testing rates were highest; we found that test-adjustment did not increase case counts once weekly per capita testing rates exceeded 6.3%. We conclude that standardization-based adjustment for differential testing by age and sex, and for dynamic changes in testing over time, results in a different picture of infection risk during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Ontario; test-adjusted epidemic curves are concordant with observed patterns of mortality during the pandemic and have face validity. This methodology offers an alternative to sero-epidemiology for identification of true burden of infection when reinfection, sero-reversion, and non-specificity of serological assays make sero-epidemiology challenging.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,003 | 0,034 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,004 | 0,008 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,003 | 0,002 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,229 | 0,041 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».