Post-COVID-19: Time to Change Our Way of Life for a Better Future
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Rationale - From the year 1 anno Domini until 1855 with the third Plague, major pandemics occurred on average every 348 years. Since then, they have occurred on average every 33 years, with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) now underway.Even though current technologies have greatly improved the way of life of human beings, COVID-19, with more than 700 000 000 cases and 6 950 000 deaths worldwide by the end of 2023, reminds us that much remains to be done. Objective - Given the frequency and duration of recent pandemics, it might be wise to start thinking about preventative methods to minimize the impact of future pandemics. This report looks back at 18 months of COVID-19, from March 2020 to August 2021, with the aim of highlighting potential solutions that could prove practical, or even essential, for the future. Material - COVID-19 data, including case and death reports, were extracted daily from the Worldometer platform to build a database for macroscopic analysis of the spread of the virus around the world. Demographic data were integrated into the COVID-19 database for a better understanding of the spatial spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in cities/municipalities. Method - Without loss of generality, we only analyzed data from the top 30 (out of 200 and above) countries ranked by total number of COVID-19 cases. Statistics (regression, t-test (p < 0.05), correlation, mean ± std, etc.) were carried out with Excel software. Spectral analysis, using Matlab software, was also used to try to better understand the temporal spread of COVID-19. Results - A good linear correlation was observed between the number of cases and the respective number of deaths depending on the country, i.e. y = 0.0121x + 19559 with R² = 0.8042. The analysis then focused mainly on the number of cases.This study showed that COVID-19 mainly affects G20 countries. The most interesting result is that cities/municipalities with high population density are a powerful activator of the spread of the virus. The current demographic context seems to be becoming a societal problem that must be addressed adequately.Spectral analysis highlighted that the very first months of spread of COVID-19 were the most notable with a strong expansion of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. On the other hand, the following six months showed a certain stability due mainly to multiple preventive measures such as confinement, closure of non-essential services, wearing of masks, distancing of 2 meters, etc. Discussion - Analysis of case and death data showed that COVID-19 mainly affects G20 countries. Nevertheless, the most interesting result of this study is that cities and municipal areas with population densities of several thousand inhabitants per square kilometer largely favored the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. It is believed that such a demographic context is becoming a societal problem that developed countries around the world will sooner or later face and therefore needs to be adequately addressed. Conclusion - COVID-19 has made us understand that it is time to act both preventatively and curatively. Phenomenological insights suggest that the next pandemic could occur in less than 50 years. It may be time to launch new societal projects aimed at relieving congestion in densely populated regions.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,008 | 0,023 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,007 | 0,007 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,003 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,002 | 0,005 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,032 | 0,015 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».