Warming-induced excess deaths of infected animals depend on pathogen kingdom and evolutionary history
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Abstract Climate change is causing extreme heating events. Simultaneously, climate change and human activities are leading to more prolonged and intense infectious disease outbreaks. The extent to which warming and infection may together impact host species persistence is, however, unclear. Using a meta-analysis of >190 effect sizes representing 101 ectothermic animal host-pathogen systems, we provide broad evidence that experimentally increased temperatures drove higher pathogen virulence, specifically pathogen-induced host mortality. Such pattern was mainly driven by excess host death caused by bacterial infections combined with warming, particularly if the pathogenic bacteria were naturally established within the host species, though novel infections without known host-pathogen evolutionary history were more lethal at lower temperatures. Importantly, larger temperature increases were associated with more host deaths hinting at the escalating threat for animal species as the world continues to warm. We found that the virulence of fungal pathogens increased only when temperatures were shifted upwards towards their thermal optimum. The magnitude of these effects was not impacted by host life-stage, immune complexity, or variable experimental protocols. Overall, our findings reveal distinct patterns of pathogen virulence change under warmer temperatures, suggesting that the impact of global warming on infectious disease outcomes would depend on pathogen traits (taxonomic kingdom, thermal tolerance) and host-pathogen evolutionary history. Author Summary Human-induced climate warming is one of the biggest challenges in our times. Simultaneously, climate change is associated with more intense infectious disease outbreaks, suggesting that temperature rises also influence disease dynamics. Growing numbers of studies have investigated the effect of warming on disease severity (or pathogen virulence) in different animal host-pathogen systems. However, individual studies did not always agree with each other, and how increased temperature and pathogen infection together impact animal survival remains unclear. Here, we resolved this uncertainty by conducting a meta-analysis of >190 effect sizes representing 101 animal host-pathogen systems. We provided broad evidence that, higher temperatures caused more deaths of infected animals, particularly for animals with bacterial infections under warmer conditions. We found that larger temperature rises were associated with more animal deaths, suggesting the increased threat for host species as the world continues to warm. We also found that pathogenic fungi were more sensitive to heat than bacterial pathogens, and temperature changes the virulence of fungal pathogens in relation to their thermal optimum.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,007 | 0,011 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,002 | 0,007 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,003 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».