Persistence and Variation of the Indirect Effects of COVID-19 Restrictions on the Spectrum of Notifiable Infectious Diseases in China: Analysis of National Surveillance Among Children and Adolescents From 2018 to 2021
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
BACKGROUND: Beyond the direct effect of COVID-19 infection on young people, the wider impact of the pandemic on other infectious diseases remains unknown. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess changes in the incidence and mortality of 42 notifiable infectious diseases during the pandemic among children and adolescents in China, compared with prepandemic levels. METHODS: The Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System of China was used to detect new cases and fatalities among individuals aged 5-22 years across 42 notifiable infectious diseases spanning from 2018 to 2021. These infectious diseases were categorized into 5 groups: respiratory, gastrointestinal and enterovirus, sexually transmitted and blood-borne, zoonotic, and vector-borne diseases. Each year (2018-2021) was segmented into 4 phases: phase 1 (January 1-22), phase 2 (January 23-April 7), phase 3 (April 8-August 31), and phase 4 (September 1-December 31) according to the varying intensities of pandemic restrictive measures in 2020. Generalized linear models were applied to assess the change in the incidence and mortality within each disease category, using 2018 and 2019 as the reference. RESULTS: A total of 4,898,260 incident cases and 3701 deaths were included. The overall incidence of notifiable infectious diseases decreased sharply during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020) compared with prepandemic levels (2018 and 2019), and then rebounded in 2021, particularly in South China. Across the past 4 years, the number of deaths steadily decreased. The incidence of diseases rebounded differentially by the pandemic phase. For instance, although seasonal influenza dominated respiratory diseases in 2019, it showed a substantial decline during the pandemic (percent change in phase 2 2020: 0.21, 95% CI 0.09-0.50), which persisted until 2021 (percent change in phase 4 2021: 1.02, 95% CI 0.74-1.41). The incidence of gastrointestinal and enterovirus diseases decreased by 33.6% during 2020 but rebounded by 56.9% in 2021, mainly driven by hand, foot, and mouth disease (percent change in phase 3 2021: 1.28, 95% CI 1.17-1.41) and infectious diarrhea (percent change in phase 3 2020: 1.22, 95% CI 1.17-1.28). Sexually transmitted and blood-borne diseases were restrained during the first year of 2021 but rebounded quickly in 2021, mainly driven by syphilis (percent change in phase 3 2020: 1.31, 95% CI 1.23-1.40) and gonorrhea (percent change in phase 3 2020: 1.10, 95% CI 1.05-1.16). Zoonotic diseases were not dampened by the pandemic but continued to increase across the study period, mainly due to brucellosis (percent change in phase 2 2020: 0.94, 95% CI 0.75-1.16). Vector-borne diseases showed a continuous decline during 2020, dominated by hemorrhagic fever (percent change in phase 2 2020: 0.68, 95% CI 0.53-0.87), but rebounded in 2021. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a marked decline in notifiable infectious diseases in Chinese children and adolescents. These effects were not sustained, with evidence of a rebound to prepandemic levels by late 2021. To effectively address the postpandemic resurgence of infectious diseases in children and adolescents, it will be essential to maintain disease surveillance and strengthen the implementation of various initiatives. These include extending immunization programs, prioritizing the management of sexually transmitted infections, continuing feasible nonpharmaceutical intervention projects, and effectively managing imported infections.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,002 | 0,003 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».