Compact machine learning model for the accurate prediction of first 24-hour survival of mechanically ventilated patients

Background: The field of machine learning has been evolving and applied in medical applications. We utilised a public dataset, MIMIC-III, to develop compact models that can accurately predict the outcome of mechanically ventilated patients in the first 24 h of first-time hospital admission. Methods: 67 predictive features, grouped into 6 categories, were selected for the classification and prediction task. 4 tree-based algorithms (Decision Tree, Bagging, eXtreme Gradient Boosting and Random Forest), and 5 non-tree-based algorithms (Logistic Regression, K-Nearest Neighbour, Linear Discriminant Analysis, Support Vector Machine and Naïve Bayes), were employed to predict the outcome of 18,883 mechanically ventilated patients. 5 scenarios were crafted to mirror the target population as per existing literature. S1.1 reflected an imbalanced situation, with significantly fewer mortality cases than survival ones, and both the training and test sets played similar target class distributions. S1.2 and S2.2 featured balanced classes; however, instances from the majority class were removed from the test set and/or the training set. S1.3 and S 2.3 generated additional instances of the minority class via the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique. Standard evaluation metrics were used to determine the best-performing models for each scenario. With the best performers, Autofeat, an automated feature engineering library, was used to eliminate less important features per scenario. Results: Tree-based models generally outperformed the non-tree-based ones. Moreover, XGB consistently yielded the highest AUC score (between 0.91 and 0.97), while exhibiting relatively high Sensitivity (between 0.58 and 0.88) on 4 scenarios (1.2, 2.2, 1.3, and 2.3). After reducing a significant number of predictors, the selected calibrated ML models were still able to achieve similar AUC and MCC scores across those scenarios. The calibration curves of the XGB and BG models, both prior to and post dimension reduction in Scenario 2.2, showed better alignment to the perfect calibration line than curves produced from other algorithms. Conclusion: This study demonstrated that dimension-reduced models can perform well and are able to retain the important features for the classification tasks. Deploying a compact machine learning model into production helps reduce costs in terms of computational resources and monitoring changes in input data over time.

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