Kinetics of Viral Shedding for Outbreak Surveillance of Emerging Infectious Diseases: Modeling Approach to SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Omicron Infection

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have highlighted the importance of viral shedding using cycle threshold (Ct) values obtained via reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction to understand the epidemic trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 infections. However, it is rare to elucidate the transition kinetics of Ct values from the asymptomatic or presymptomatic phase to the symptomatic phase before recovery using individual repeated Ct values. OBJECTIVE: This study proposes a novel Ct-enshrined compartment model to provide a series of quantitative measures for delineating the full trajectories of the dynamics of viral load from infection until recovery. METHODS: This Ct-enshrined compartment model was constructed by leveraging Ct-classified states within and between presymptomatic and symptomatic compartments before recovery or death among people with infections. A series of recovery indices were developed to assess the net kinetic movement of Ct-up toward and Ct-down off recovery. The model was applied to (1) a small-scale community-acquired Alpha variant outbreak under the "zero-COVID-19" policy without vaccines in May 2021 and (2) a large-scale community-acquired Omicron variant outbreak with high booster vaccination rates following the lifting of the "zero-COVID-19" policy in April 2022 in Taiwan. The model used Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods with the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for parameter estimation. Sensitivity analyses were conducted by varying Ct cutoff values to assess the robustness of the model. RESULTS: The kinetic indicators revealed a marked difference in viral shedding dynamics between the Alpha and Omicron variants. The Alpha variant exhibited slower viral shedding and lower recovery rates, but the Omicron variant demonstrated swifter viral shedding and higher recovery rates. Specifically, the Alpha variant showed gradual Ct-up transitions and moderate recovery rates, yielding a presymptomatic recovery index slightly higher than 1 (1.10), whereas the Omicron variant had remarkable Ct-up transitions and significantly higher asymptomatic recovery rates, resulting in a presymptomatic recovery index much higher than 1 (152.5). Sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the chosen Ct values of 18 and 25 across different recovery phases. Regarding the impact of vaccination, individuals without booster vaccination had a 19% higher presymptomatic incidence rate compared to those with booster vaccination. Breakthrough infections in boosted individuals initially showed similar Ct-up transition rates but higher rates in later stages compared to nonboosted individuals. Overall, booster vaccination improved recovery rates, particularly during the symptomatic phase, although recovery rates for persistent asymptomatic infection were similar regardless of vaccination status once the Ct level exceeded 25. CONCLUSIONS: The study provides new insights into dynamic Ct transitions, with the notable finding that Ct-up transitions toward recovery outpaced Ct-down and symptom-surfacing transitions during the presymptomatic phase. The Ct-up against Ct-down transition varies with variants and vaccination status. The proposed Ct-enshrined compartment model is useful for the surveillance of emerging infectious diseases in the future to prevent community-acquired outbreaks.

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