Development of a System for Predicting Hospitalization Time for Patients With Traumatic Brain Injury Based on Machine Learning Algorithms: User-Centered Design Case Study
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Background: Currently, the treatment and care of patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) are intractable health problems worldwide and greatly increase the medical burden in society. However, machine learning-based algorithms and the use of a large amount of data accumulated in the clinic in the past can predict the hospitalization time of patients with brain injury in advance, so as to design a reasonable arrangement of resources and effectively reduce the medical burden of society. Especially in China, where medical resources are so tight, this method has important application value. Objective: We aimed to develop a system based on a machine learning model for predicting the length of hospitalization of patients with TBI, which is available to patients, nurses, and physicians. Methods: We collected information on 1128 patients who received treatment at the Neurosurgery Center of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from May 2017 to May 2022, and we trained and tested the machine learning model using 5 cross-validations to avoid overfitting; 28 types of independent variables were used as input variables in the machine learning model, and the length of hospitalization was used as the output variables. Once the models were trained, we obtained the error and goodness of fit (R2) of each machine learning model from the 5 rounds of cross-validation and compared them to select the best predictive model to be encapsulated in the developed system. In addition, we externally tested the models using clinical data related to patients treated at the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from June 2021 to February 2022. Results: Six machine learning models were built, including support vector regression machine, convolutional neural network, back propagation neural network, random forest, logistic regression, and multilayer perceptron. Among them, the support vector regression has the smallest error of 10.22% on the test set, the highest goodness of fit of 90.4%, and all performances are the best among the 6 models. In addition, we used external datasets to verify the experimental results of these 6 models in order to avoid experimental chance, and the support vector regression machine eventually performed the best in the external datasets. Therefore, we chose to encapsulate the support vector regression machine into our system for predicting the length of stay of patients with traumatic brain trauma. Finally, we made the developed system available to patients, nurses, and physicians, and the satisfaction questionnaire showed that patients, nurses, and physicians agreed that the system was effective in providing clinical decisions to help patients, nurses, and physicians. Conclusions: This study shows that the support vector regression machine model developed using machine learning methods can accurately predict the length of hospitalization of patients with TBI, and the developed prediction system has strong clinical use.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,007 | 0,011 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,003 | 0,001 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».