Medication Prescription Policy for US Veterans With Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer: Causal Machine Learning Approach

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer is the second leading cause of death among American men. If detected and treated at an early stage, prostate cancer is often curable. However, an advanced stage such as metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) has a high risk of mortality. Multiple treatment options exist, the most common included docetaxel, abiraterone, and enzalutamide. Docetaxel is a cytotoxic chemotherapy, whereas abiraterone and enzalutamide are androgen receptor pathway inhibitors (ARPI). ARPIs are preferred over docetaxel due to lower toxicity. No study has used machine learning with patients' demographics, test results, and comorbidities to identify heterogeneous treatment rules that might improve the survival duration of patients with mCRPC. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to measure patient-level heterogeneity in the association of medication prescribed with overall survival duration (in the form of follow-up days) and arrive at a set of medication prescription rules using patient demographics, test results, and comorbidities. METHODS: We excluded patients with mCRPC who were on docetaxel, cabaxitaxel, mitoxantrone, and sipuleucel-T either before or after the prescription of an ARPI. We included only the African American and white populations. In total, 2886 identified veterans treated for mCRPC who were prescribed either abiraterone or enzalutamide as the first line of treatment from 2014 to 2017, with follow-up until 2020, were analyzed. We used causal survival forests for analysis. The unit level of analysis was the patient. The primary outcome of this study was follow-up days indicating survival duration while on the first-line medication. After estimating the treatment effect, a prescription policy tree was constructed. RESULTS: For 2886 veterans, enzalutamide is associated with an average of 59.94 (95% CI 35.60-84.28) more days of survival than abiraterone. The increase in overall survival duration for the 2 drugs varied across patient demographics, test results, and comorbidities. Two data-driven subgroups of patients were identified by ranking them on their augmented inverse-propensity weighted (AIPW) scores. The average AIPW scores for the 2 subgroups were 19.36 (95% CI -16.93 to 55.65) and 100.68 (95% CI 62.46-138.89). Based on visualization and t test, the AIPW score for low and high subgroups was significant (P=.003), thereby supporting heterogeneity. The analysis resulted in a set of prescription rules for the 2 ARPIs based on a few covariates available to the physicians at the time of prescription. CONCLUSIONS: This study of 2886 veterans showed evidence of heterogeneity and that survival days may be improved for certain patients with mCRPC based on the medication prescribed. Findings suggest that prescription rules based on the patient characteristics, laboratory test results, and comorbidities available to the physician at the time of prescription could improve survival by providing personalized treatment decisions.

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