Use of prenatal ultrasound findings to predict postnatal outcome in fetuses with lower urinary tract obstruction
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
OBJECTIVE: Lower urinary tract obstruction (LUTO) is a chronic condition with a spectrum of outcomes. It is usually suspected prenatally based on ultrasound features (USFs). Given the unknown postnatal trajectory and the potential for significant morbidity and mortality, many families choose termination of pregnancy (TOP), often based on USFs alone. Herein, we sought to develop a tool that can be used to predict postnatal outcome based on combinations of USFs, which can aid prenatal counseling and parental decision-making. METHODS: This was a retrospective study of cases with suspected fetal LUTO that were seen at a high-risk fetal center and a tertiary pediatric center in Canada. Data were collected on USFs, prenatal/postnatal death and postnatal need for transplantation and/or dialysis. USFs from pregnancies with a gestational age of 13-26 weeks on initial ultrasound at the high-risk fetal center that underwent TOP were collected and matched to fetuses with comparable prenatal USFs that were not terminated, which had a known postnatal outcome, to build a random forest model. The random forest model was fitted for each outcome (death, dialysis or transplantation) and tested for accuracy using leave-one-out cross-validation. Each predictor was assessed independently with combined importance when accounting for other predictors. The model was used to predict the most likely postnatal outcomes for cases of TOP had the pregnancy been continued. RESULTS: USF data from 85 cases of TOP and 125 cases of expectantly managed pregnancy with prenatally suspected LUTO were retrieved. For expectantly managed cases, there was a median follow-up duration of 5.7 (interquartile range, 0.2-14.5) years among the liveborn infants. There were 14 prenatal and 22 postnatal deaths in the expectantly managed cohort. The random forest model demonstrated the highest predictive accuracy for transplantation (77% accuracy, 50% sensitivity, 80% specificity), followed by death (72% accuracy, 83% sensitivity, 67% specificity) and dialysis (71% accuracy, 70% sensitivity, 71% specificity). For the TOP cohort, had the pregnancies been continued, the model predicted transplantation and dialysis in 21/85 (25%) and 37/85 (44%) cases, respectively; pre- or postnatal death was predicted in 69/85 (81%) cases. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that it is possible to predict death and postnatal transplantation and/or dialysis from USFs in fetuses with suspected LUTO with acceptable accuracy. Predictive accuracy will improve with continued follow-up of more patients, enabling more personalized prenatal counseling and more informed decision-making for families. © 2024 The Author(s). Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,002 | 0,012 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».