Decline of migratory monarch butterflies during their fall migration in North America
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
The migratory population of monarch butterflies in North America has significantly declined over the past few decades, leading to their classification as an endangered species in Canada.Scientists have identified two major groups of threats responsible for this decline: those affecting monarchs during migration and those affecting them during the breeding season.In this study, I investigated two threats potentially impacting monarchs during their fall migration: the range expansion of winterbreeding monarchs and roadkill during fall migration.Winter-breeding monarchs in North America do not migrate to overwintering areas and continue breeding during the winter in regions with a suitable climate and available non-native milkweed.These monarchs carry a higher burden of the Ophryocystis elektroscirrha parasite, which can increase the infection rate among the offspring of migratory monarchs that interact with them.In the first project in this thesis, I used species distribution modeling to estimate the current distribution of winter-breeding monarchs across North America and projected their potential future distribution based on different climate change scenarios.In the second project, using community science data and accounting for sampling bias, I mapped the distribution of migratory monarchs in late summer before they start their fall migration.Understanding the pre-migration distribution of monarchs was essential for my third project, where I estimated the average probability of roadkill for migratory monarchs starting their fall migration iii from any location across their distribution.Even under the most optimistic scenarios, my results suggest a 98% and 22% range expansion by 2100 for western and eastern winter-breeding monarchs, respectively.Additionally, my results show that the average estimate of roadkill probability for monarchs during fall migration is 99.5%.My research sheds light on the extent to which these two migration-related threats affect monarchs and helps decision-makers identify priority areas for stopping the spread of non-native milkweed.Furthermore, these findings assist in making informed decisions to recover the population of migratory monarchs by highlighting the high roadkill risk they face during migration.When I was accepted at Carleton University, it came after a very tough time in academia.But once I started this journey, I realized how different the environment and people could be.This positive experience has helped me become a better scientist and, hopefully, a better person.Being a graduate student is always stressful, even in the best environments.I want to first thank my small family: my wife, Sahebeh, and my little girl, Liyana.I am truly grateful for all the support you have given me throughout my research.I apologize for not being the ideal husband and father.Without your support and understanding
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».