Relationship between Chinese Financial Cycle and Business Cycle
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
The data used in this research are from the first quarter of 2001 to the third quarter of 2020 to analyze the relationship between the financial cycle and the business cycle in China. The research results are as follows: First, the cycling period of housing price cycles and equity price cycles are relatively short in comparison with the ratios of total credit to the private credit to GDP. Second, the research shows that the selected indicators faithfully manifest the medium-term cycle. Third, in terms of the financial cycle, because of the peak, there is concern that this could lead to a financial crisis. Fourth, the financial cycle and business cycle were synchronized before the global financial crisis of 2008. However recently they are at odds. The monetary policy and financial stability have always been the main research questions of researchers. Because of the several financial crises, their importance has become more prominent. In addition, since the Great Moderation, leading researchers at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) have studied the relationship between the stability of the real economy and financial stability with the concepts of financial cycle and business cycle. They pay attention to the expansion and contraction of the real economy caused by the financial sector. For the real economy, it not only needs to deal with the impact of the financial sector, but to distinguish the internal factors of the business cycle and the financial cycle. The point is that the two cycles are not always in sync. In the contraction period of the business cycle, the financial cycle can be in the expansion period, and vice versa. Thus, monetary policy aimed at price stability is often at odds with macroprudential policy aimed at financial security. It is an important task to properly integrate monetary policy and macroprudential policy according to different conditions. According to the research results, the enlightenment is obtained as follows: First, the financial cycle is inevitable, and it refers to the expansion and contraction of credit according to the certain period of the economic cycle. If the financial cycle is excessively amplified, the credit and asset prices will have boom-bust. Therefore, in order to mitigate the fluctuation of the financial cycle, it is necessary to create a sound macroeconomic environment by shaking off excessively low interest rates and implementing targeted policies. Second, in the financial cycle, it is very important to monitor the asset price development so as to avoid excessive asset prices bubble. Third, as the information and financial technology developing rapidly, although the changes of financial structure are inevitable, the procyclicality of the financial system has greatly increased, and the duration and intensity of the financial cycle have also greatly increased. Therefore, the country should begin to find measures to decrease the procyclicality of financial cycle.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,003 | 0,005 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,003 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».