The prevalence of tau‐PET positivity in aging and dementia

Abstract Background Tau‐PET imaging allows in‐vivo detection of neurofibrillary tangles. One tau‐PET tracer (i.e., [18F]flortaucipir) has received FDA‐approval for clinical use, and multiple other tau‐PET tracers have been implemented into clinical trials for participant selection and/or as a primary or secondary outcome measure. To optimize future use of tau‐PET, it is essential to understand how demographic, clinical and genetic factors affect tau‐PET‐positivity rates. Method This large‐scale multi‐center study includes 9713 participants from 35 cohorts worldwide who underwent tau‐PET with [18F]flortaucipir (n=6420), [18F]RO948 (n=1999), [18F]MK6240 (n=878) or [18F]PI2620 (n=416) (Table 1). We analyzed individual‐level tau‐PET SUVR data using a cerebellar reference region that were processed either centrally (n=3855) or by each cohort (n=5858). We computed cohort‐specific SUVR thresholds based on the mean + 2 standard deviations in a temporal meta‐region of amyloid‐negative cognitively normal (CN) individuals aged >50. Logistic generalized estimating equations were used to estimate tau‐PET‐positivity probabilities, using an exchangeable correlation structure to account for within‐cohort correlations. Analyses were performed with (interactions between) age, amyloid‐status, and APOE‐ε4 carriership as independent variables, stratified for syndrome diagnosis. Result The study included 5962 CN participants (7.5% tau‐PET‐positive), 1683 participants with mild cognitive impairment (MCI, 33.8% tau‐PET‐positive) and 2068 participants with a clinical diagnosis of dementia (62.1% tau‐PET‐positive) (Figure 1). From age 60 to 80 years, the estimated prevalence of tau‐PET‐positivity increased from 1.2% [95% CI: 0.9%‐1.5%] to 3.7% [2.3%‐5.1%] among CN amyloid‐negative participants; and from 16.4% [10.8%‐22.1%] to 20.5% [18.8%‐22.2%] among CN amyloid‐positive participants. Among amyloid‐negative participants with MCI and dementia, from age 60 to 80 years, the estimated prevalence of tau‐PET‐positivity increased from 3.5% [1.6%‐5.3%] to 11.8% [7.1%‐16.5%] and from 12.6% [4.5%‐20.7%] to 15.9% [6.7%‐25.1%] respectively. In contrast, among amyloid‐positive participants with MCI and dementia, from age 60 to 80 years, the estimated prevalence of tau‐PET‐positivity decreased from 66.5% [57.0%‐76.0%] to 48.3% [42.9%‐53.8%] and from 92.3% [88.7%‐95.9%] to 73.4% [67.5%‐79.3%] respectively. APOE‐ε4 status primarily modulated the association of age with tau‐PET‐positivity estimates among CN and MCI amyloid‐positive participants (Figure 2). Conclusion This large‐scale multi‐cohort study provides robust prevalence estimates of tau‐PET‐positivity, which can aid the interpretation of tau‐PET in the clinic and inform clinical trial designs.

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