A Wind Offset Paradox: Alberta’s Wind Fleet Displacing Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Depressing Future Offset Values
Pourquoi ce travail est dans la base
Une base qui oublie comment elle a trouvé un travail ne peut pas être vérifiée. Voici les voies qui ont admis celui-ci.
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
The introduction of a significant industrial carbon price in Alberta, Canada, has precipitated major changes in its electricity market, both for fossil fuel generators, which has resulted in a rapid transition from coal to natural gas, as well as for renewable energy projects, which can monetize emission offset credits. Coal, which generated close to half of the electricity in the province in 2016 before the major changes were introduced, had fallen to less than 8 percent by the end of 2023 and was completely phased out by June 2024. Conversely, wind energy grew from 6 to 12 percent of the annual supply, in part due to the increasing value of the carbon credits whose value is connected to the deemed greenhouse emissions they are displacing. As wind energy increased in penetration, it lowered its own market price, which was discounted from the average market price by 10–43 percent, but in turn increased the relative importance of its offset. This paper examines the evolution of emissions displaced by wind energy in Alberta by considering 10 years of historical merit order data and creating a counterfactual scenario where historical wind generation is replaced by next-in-merit units. On average, coal made up 84 percent of the marginal energy and 93 percent of the marginal emissions in 2018. As the coal capacity declined, natural gas units replaced coal on the margins, jumping from 21 percent of next-in-merit generation in 2020 to 84 percent in 2023. Alberta uses a deemed emissions displacement factor, which is a combination of historical build and operating margins that declined from 0.65 tCO2e/MWh in 2010 to 0.52 tCO2e/MWh in 2023. Using the counterfactual scenario, an alternative offset value is considered, which had a maximum difference of 57 percent (9 CAD/MWh) of increased value over the actual historical offset. However, the counterfactual rate of emission offsets fell to near parity with the deemed grid displacement factor by 2022 as natural gas became increasingly dominant in the market. As the carbon price is scheduled to increase from 65 CAD/tCO2e in 2023 to 170 CAD/tCO2e by 2030, the provincial offset could reach a maximum value of 53 CAD/MWh in 2030 but begin to decline thereafter as the carbon price drives decarbonization, thereby lowering displaced emissions in either method of calculation. The introduction of significant carbon pricing into a thermally dominated electricity market resulted in more emissions being displaced by renewable energy than they were credited for in the short term, but the resultant decarbonization of the grid decreases the long-term value of emission offsets.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découle