P-1954. Wastewater-Based Surveillance More Accurately Describes Disease Burden Of COVID-19 In Communities with Less Than 60,000 Inhabitants – An Ontario-Wide Study
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Abstract Background The emergence of COVID-19 in Canada prompted extensive efforts in population-wide surveillance, including wastewater-based surveillance (WBS). WBS offers insights into the prevalence of infectious disease burden, however, reasons for poor correlation between hospital admissions and wastewater viral signal in some locations across Ontario remain unclear, while others demonstrate remarkable correlations. This study aims to elucidate the parameters influencing hospitalization-WBS correlation quality to guide infectious disease research and surveillance.Figure 1:Geographic overview of sampling locations in Ontario, Canada Methods Wastewater viral signals and daily hospital admissions geospatially linked with the surveyed sewersheds, were obtained from the Ontario Wastewater Surveillance Initiative. The study included 94 sampling sites (Figure 1), excluding those with inadequate sampling frequency. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient (ρ) was calculated between hospital admissions and wastewater signals for all included sites during the Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 waves from Nov. 1st,2021 to Jun. 30th, 2022. Regression trees were constructed using the R packages “rpart” and “rpart.plot” to identify factors influencing hospitalization-WBS ρ, including population size, hospital admissions range, proportion of zero admissions, and site isolation status.Figure 2:Regression trees representing a classification model for evaluating the correlation quality between hospitalizations and wastewater signal during the Omicron BA.1 wave – coinciding with a period of waned vaccination immunity (A) and the Omicron BA.2 wave – coinciding with a period of significant vaccination immunity (B). Results Regression tree analysis identified critical population size thresholds influencing hospitalization-WBS ρ: populations under 66,000 exhibited weaker ρ (ρ > 0.650) during Omicron BA.1, and under 187,000 during the BA.2 wave (Figure 3). Larger population areas exhibited stronger hospitalization-WBS ρ, suggesting both are reliable infectious disease burden indicators, influenced by differences in community immunity dynamics between the two waves. Conclusion Populations under 66,000 during a period of waned vaccine immunity and under 187,000 during a period of significant vaccine immunity exhibit distinct relationship between hospital admissions and wastewater signals. These thresholds mark key sizes of communities where the efficacy of wastewater surveillance becomes more pronounced, emphasizing its utility in smaller populations where clinical surveillance of infectious diseases may be limited. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».