Assessing climate hotspots and refugia for ecologically and culturally important species around the TN and AN Marine Protected Areas
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Climate change effects are of concern in the Canadian Arctic as ocean warming, sea ice melting, and acidification have profound effects on marine ecosystems and the associated human communities. Marine spatial planning, including the designation of marine protected areas (MPAs), help manage the spatial and temporal distribution of human activities in marine areas to achieve ecological, economic, and social objectives. However, as anthropogenic changes impact the ocean ecosystems into the future, the purported benefits of MPAs may be threatened. This study aims to examine the impacts of climate change on marine mammal, fish, and invertebrate species in the Canadian Beaufort Sea and Amundsen Gulf to inform the climate risks and vulnerabilities in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region and the Tarium Niryutait (TN) and Anguniaqvia niqiqyuam (AN) MPAs. The exchange and co-development of knowledge through consultations with key stakeholders and committees ensured Indigenous interests were upheld in this study. We combined spatially-explicit climatic hazard indicators assessed using a fuzzy log-based algorithm with biodiversity impacts projected from species distribution modelling. We analyzed the exposure of marine species and their habitats to climatic hazards due to increasing temperature, decreasing sea ice cover, freshening, decreasing oxygen concentration, acidification, and changing net primary production by 2050 (average of 2041–2060) and 2090 (average of 2081–2100) under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) 1–2.6 (SSP1–2.6) and SSP5–8.5. We then applied species distribution models to project the effects of the environmental variables on the habitat suitability of the species occurring in and adjacent to the Inuvialuit Settlement Region and the TN and AN MPAs. We identified areas that are projected to face large climatic hazards and risks, and decrease in habitat suitability across species as potential climate ‘hotspot’ and the contrary as ‘refugia’. Specifically, the results indicated shallow areas of the Beaufort Sea shelf are typically projected to face large climatic hazards, and are a hotspot for habitat suitability for fish species. Areas for habitat refugia were identified in northern deeper waters near the Prince of Wales Strait. Beluga whales, a key culturally important species, are projected to gain in habitat suitability with the warming shallow waters during their summer migration and calving by the mid-21st century. Lastly, the potential migration of new species, and range constriction of resident species (e.g. Arctic cod), may alter the biodiversity and community structure of the region. The results were communicated to Indigenous People, the government, and other stakeholders in the Canadian Arctic to inform them about the potential climate impacts and adaptations for human communities through the effects on species that are important for food, livelihood, and cultural security. The model findings reveal valuable insights on the risk of climate change on biodiversity, the integration of climate change into adaptation plans, and build resilience for marine spatial planning in the Canadian Arctic, Inuvialuit Settlement Region, and the TN and AN MPAs under climate change.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».