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Notice bibliographique
Résumé
• South Africa may be afflicted by Dutch Disease; we present quantitative evidence that supports this hypothesis, at least in part. • If this diagnosis is correct, then it follows that certain key policy recommendations be followed, such as urgent economic diversification, political reform and financial transparency improvements. • While South Africa is not, according to our quantitative examination, afflicted by other dimensions of the resource curse per se, institutional quality appears to have been impaired by mineral rents, which will ultimately reverse the country’s human development gains if not immediately reversed. • This is the first quantitative attempt to specifically assess the role of South Africa’s mineral rents in its manufacturing and development outcomes against a set of comparable countries from 1996 to 2019. The results are, therefore, novel, and should be closely scrutinised by policymakers and academics alike. This paper addresses the question of how best to explain South Africa's prolonged economic stagnation, manifest especially in manufacturing decline, both in total employment share and value addition to the economy. Despite its wealth of natural resources, South Africa's economic performance – especially in the manufacturing sector – has been weak, especially since 2008. The extent to which the country's resource abundance determines manufacturing performance has largely been overlooked in the literature. Utilising analytic narrative, we examine the plausibility of competing hypotheses that may account for manufacturing decline in South Africa. Our primary hypothesis is that South Africa is afflicted by a particular manifestation of the resource curse known as “Dutch Disease”. After examining several explanatory hypotheses, we conclude that the decline of South Africa's manufacturing industry is strongly linked to its reliance on mineral rents, but through multiple channels. The decline is exacerbated by poor institutional quality, itself driven by "state capture," hindering the country's ability to combat corruption and inefficiencies in government effectiveness. To recover from these dynamics, we suggest that South Africa should focus on strengthening institutions, improving political governance, and enhancing financial transparency. Addressing these challenges is crucial to manufacturing recovery, diversifying the economy and fostering broad-based economic development in South Africa.
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Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découle