Machine Learning for Predicting Postoperative Functional Disability and Mortality Among Older Patients With Cancer: Retrospective Cohort Study
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Background: The global cancer burden is rapidly increasing, with 20 million new cases estimated in 2022. The world population aged ≥65 years is also increasing, projected to reach 15.9% by 2050, making cancer control for older patients urgent. Surgical resection is important for cancer treatment; however, predicting postoperative disability and mortality in older patients is crucial for surgical decision-making, considering the quality of life and care burden. Currently, no model directly predicts postoperative functional disability in this population. Objective: We aimed to develop and validate machine-learning models to predict postoperative functional disability (≥5-point decrease in the Barthel Index) or in-hospital death in patients with cancer aged ≥ 65 years. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included patients aged ≥65 years who underwent surgery for major cancers (lung, stomach, colorectal, liver, pancreatic, breast, or prostate cancer) between April 2016 and March 2023 in 70 Japanese hospitals across 6 regional groups. One group was randomly selected for external validation, while the remaining 5 groups were randomly divided into training (70%) and internal validation (30%) sets. Predictor variables were selected from 37 routinely available preoperative factors through electronic medical records (age, sex, income, comorbidities, laboratory values, and vital signs) using crude odds ratios (P<.1) and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method. We developed 6 machine-learning models, including category boosting (CatBoost), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), logistic regression, neural networks, random forest, and support vector machine. Model predictive performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with 95% CI. We used the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) method to evaluate contribution to the predictive performance for each predictor variable. Results: This study included 33,355 patients in the training, 14,294 in the internal validation, and 6711 in the external validation sets. In the training set, 1406/33,355 (4.2%) patients experienced worse discharge. A total of 24 predictor variables were selected for the final models. CatBoost and XGBoost achieved the largest AUCs among the 6 models: 0.81 (95% CI 0.80-0.82) and 0.81 (95% CI 0.80-0.82), respectively. In the top 15 influential factors based on the mean absolute SHAP value, both models shared the same 14 factors such as dementia, age ≥85 years, and gastrointestinal cancer. The CatBoost model showed the largest AUCs in both internal (0.77, 95% CI 0.75-0.79) and external validation (0.72, 95% CI 0.68-0.75). Conclusions: The CatBoost model demonstrated good performance in predicting postoperative outcomes for older patients with cancer using routinely available preoperative factors. The robustness of these findings was supported by the identical top influential factors between the CatBoost and XGBoost models. This model could support surgical decision-making while considering postoperative quality of life and care burden, with potential for implementation through electronic health records.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».