Estimating the impact of the Russian invasion on the displacement of graduating high school students in Ukraine
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Abstract On 24 February 2022, Russia began a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The war has dramatically impacted every area of life in Ukraine, including education. In this paper, we curate a uniquely comprehensive dataset of standardized exam outcomes used for admissions to higher education institutions in Ukraine—analogous to the Standardized Aptitude Test (SAT) in the United States—to provide strong estimates of student displacement and the first analysis of student drop-off , or decline of participation in the Ukrainian education system, following the Russian full-scale invasion. We conducted descriptive statistical analysis, which included computing and comparing means across groups of students, conditioned on geographic location, migration pattern, and demographics, coupled with data visualization. We found that, among the graduating Ukrainian high school students in 2022, approximately 36,500 (16%) were displaced, with 64% of them moving abroad, primarily to Poland, Germany, and Czechia. Most displaced students originated from the front-line war regions, and either moved abroad or migrated towards the central and western parts of Ukraine. Further, we found a 21% decline in graduating high school students taking the standardized higher education entrance exam in 2022, as compared to 2021. This drop-off from the common educational pathway consists of approximately 41,500 students. With these findings taken together, we estimate that at least 78,000—a staggering 34%—of high school seniors have been directly impacted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We also study the impacts on subgroups and at the intersection of socio-economic status (as measured by urban vs. rural location) and gender, and find that intersectionality exacerbates the impacts, with men from rural areas being particularly adversely impacted. We conclude this article by reflecting on several policies pursued by the Ukrainian government and its institutions, aimed at minimizing disruptions to the school year and retaining students. Our analysis has important implications for governmental organizations like the Ukrainian government and the European Union, and human rights organizations like the UN Refugee Agency and the International Organization for Migration who wish to understand the impact of the Russian invasion on the education system in Ukraine.
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Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».