Optimizing Feature Selection and Machine Learning Algorithms for Early Detection of Prediabetes Risk: Comparative Study

Background: Prediabetes is an intermediate stage between normal glucose metabolism and diabetes and is associated with increased risk of complications like cardiovascular disease and kidney failure. Objective: It is crucial to recognize individuals with prediabetes early in order to apply timely intervention strategies to decelerate or prohibit diabetes development. This study aims to compare the effectiveness of machine learning (ML) algorithms in predicting prediabetes and identifying its key clinical predictors. Methods: Multiple ML models are evaluated in this study, including random forest, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support vector machine (SVM), and k-nearest neighbors (KNNs), on a dataset of 4743 individuals. For improved performance and interpretability, key clinical features were selected using LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) regression and principal component analysis (PCA). To optimize model accuracy and reduce overfitting, we used hyperparameter tuning with RandomizedSearchCV for XGBoost and random forest, and GridSearchCV for SVM and KNN. SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) was used to assess model-agnostic feature importance. To resolve data imbalance, SMOTE (Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique) was applied to ensure reliable classifications. Results: A cross-validated ROC-AUC (receiver operating characteristic area under the curve) score of 0.9117 highlighted the robustness of random forest in generalizing across datasets among the models tested. XGBoost followed closely, providing balanced accuracy in distinguishing between normal and prediabetic cases. While SVMs and KNNs performed adequately as baseline models, they exhibited limitations in sensitivity. The SHAP analysis indicated that BMI, age, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol emerged as the key predictors across models. The performance was significantly enhanced through hyperparameter tuning; for example, the ROC-AUC for SVM increased from 0.813 (default) to 0.863 (tuned). PCA kept 12 components while maintaining 95% of the variance in the dataset. Conclusions: It is demonstrated in this research that optimized ML models, especially random forest and XGBoost, are effective tools for assessing early prediabetes risk. Combining SHAP analysis with LASSO and PCA enhances transparency, supporting their integration in real-time clinical decision support systems. Future directions include validating these models in diverse clinical settings and integrating additional biomarkers to improve prediction accuracy, offering a promising avenue for early intervention and personalized treatment strategies in preventive health care.

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