Is individual heterogeneity in growth rates relevant to population dynamics of long‐lived reptiles?
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Many populations show pronounced individual heterogeneity in traits such as somatic growth rates, but the relevance of this heterogeneity to population dynamics remains unclear. Individual heterogeneity may be particularly relevant to long-lived organisms for which vital rates (survival and reproduction) increase with adult growth, as subtle differences in growth rates can have major fitness consequences. Previous analysis of data for snapping turtles (Chelydra serpentina) in Algonquin Park, Canada, from 1972 to 2012 showed that individual heterogeneity in growth rates and size-specific reproductive rates of adult females led to eightfold variation in lifetime reproductive output. Here, we test whether this individual heterogeneity affects population dynamics by comparing projections from alternative integrated population models (IPMs) where: (1) vital rates of adult females increase with size and there is individual heterogeneity in their adult growth and reproduction parameters as well as their ages at maturity; (2) vital rates increase with size but there is no individual heterogeneity; or (3) vital rates are assumed equal among adult females. The three IPMs all integrated component models for growth, reproduction, and survival, incorporated random annual variation in rates, and used data augmentation to model unobserved individuals including future recruits. The data augmentation approach allowed the individual heterogeneity in parameters to be extrapolated from observed to unobserved individuals under Model 1. Models 1 and 2 produced similar annual estimates of recruitment, mortality, and abundance from 1972 to 2012 and similar projections for the next 10 years. Those projections had wide prediction intervals (5% increase to 73% decline) due to annual variation in rates but were consistent with the 59% decline estimated based on new data collected from 2012 to 2022. The projected decline reflected predicted decreases in survival and recruitment due to a decrease in the average body size of adult females. Consequently, Model 3 gave more optimistic projections that were inconsistent with the observed decline. The results therefore showed that the size composition of adult females, and therefore their overall somatic growth rate, was important to the dynamics of the population. However, the results also indicated that the pronounced individual heterogeneity in growth rates observed was irrelevant to population dynamics.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».