Comparison of Virus Watch COVID-19 Positivity, Incidence, and Hospitalization Rates With Other Surveillance Systems: Surveillance Study
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Background: Effective disease surveillance is essential for understanding pathogens' epidemiology, detecting outbreaks, and enabling timely public health responses. In the United Kingdom, large-scale studies, such as the Office for National Statistics COVID-19 Infection Survey (CIS), have monitored SARS-CoV-2 transmission but required significant resources, making them challenging to sustain when pandemic-specific funding ends and also in resource-limited settings. In contrast, the Virus Watch study, at lower cost, relied on self-reported and linked national testing data as well as symptomatic testing, while Severe Acute Respiratory Infections Watch (SARI) leveraged hospital data for cost-effective surveillance. Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of Virus Watch as a surveillance system in monitoring COVID-19 positivity, incidence, and hospitalization rates in England and Wales, using data from the CIS and SARI as benchmarks for comparison, while considering the key differences in the study designs, including recruitment strategies, incentives, and testing criteria. Methods: We used the Virus Watch prospective community cohort study to estimate COVID-19 positivity, incidence, and hospitalization rates in England and Wales from June 2020 to March 2023. Rate estimates were compared with CIS modeled positivity and incidence rates, and with SARI COVID-19 hospitalization rates. Global synchrony between datasets was measured using overall Spearman ⍴ and local synchrony using 9-week rolling Spearman ⍴. For England, comparisons with CIS estimates used Virus Watch rates calculated with and without linked national testing data. Positivity rates were also assessed overall and separately before and after the end of free national testing. Results: A total of 58,628 participants were recruited into the Virus Watch study, of whom 52,526 (89.6%) were resident in England and 1532 (2.6%) in Wales; region was missing for the remainder. Virus Watch-estimated COVID-19 positivity and incidence rates in England, calculated with and without linked testing data, showed strong global synchrony with CIS estimates (positivity ⍴: 0.91 and 0.90; both P<.001 and incidence ⍴: 0.92 and 0.90; both P<.001) and strong local synchrony (positivity ⍴: median 0.75, IQR 0.53-0.85 and median 0.67, IQR 0.47-0.83, and incidence ⍴: median 0.76, IQR 0.49-0.88 and median 0.66, IQR 0.45-0.82), despite having lower absolute values. Global and local synchrony of positivity rates were similar for periods before and after the end of free national testing, although the difference between Virus Watch and CIS estimates was greater post-free testing. COVID-19 hospitalization rates were also lower and less synchronized with SARI estimates. In Wales, Virus Watch estimates exhibited greater variability (positivity ρ: 0.75, P<.001; incidence rate ρ: 0.85, P<.001) and lower local synchrony (positivity ρ: median 0.61, IQR 0.34-0.74, and incidence ρ: median 0.52, IQR 0.38-0.71) compared to England. Conclusions: Our results highlight the effectiveness of the Virus Watch approach in providing accurate estimates of COVID-19 positivity and incidence rates, even in the absence of national surveillance systems. This low-cost method can be adapted to various settings, particularly low-resource ones, to strengthen public health surveillance and inform timely interventions.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,004 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,002 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,002 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».