Transitions in cigarette and ENDS use in the PATH Study: a multistate transition model analysis of adults in 2021–2022 compared to previous years
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Abstract Introduction Electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) products continue to evolve, and so ongoing analysis of transition rates over time is important for tracking real-world associations between ENDS and cigarette use and for providing the information necessary to project future public health outcomes. Methods Using the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study Waves 6–7 (2021–2022), we applied a Markov multistate transition model to estimate transition rates for initiation and cessation of each product. We estimated one-year transition probabilities for each transition. These results were compared to estimated rates and probabilities in Waves 1–6 (2014– 2021). Results The fraction adopting ENDS use in 2021–22 among those who had never previously established tobacco product use, those not currently using tobacco products, and those currently smoking cigarettes increased to 0.5% (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.4, 0.6%), 2.7% (95% CI: 2.3, 3.2%), and 6.8% (95% CI: 6.1, 7.6%), respectively. These increases were driven by young adults (ages 18–24), with respective transition fractions of 2.7% (95% CI: 2.3, 3.2%), 23.6% (95% CI: 20.2, 27.0%), and 19.2% (95% CI: 14.0, 24.5%). The fraction of adults who transitioned from dual cigarette and ENDS use to cigarette-only use remained around 25% (26.2% [95% CI: 21.7, 30.7%]), while the fraction who transitioned to ENDS-only use increased to 24.2% (95%CI: 20.5, 27.9%). The increase in the dual to ENDS-only use transition was also driven by young adults (34.4% [95% CI: 26.2, 42.6%]) and adults ages 25–34 (29.4% [95% CI: 23.1, 35.7%]). Conclusion Public health efforts are needed to promote cigarette cessation among older adults, specifically. What this paper adds What is already known on this topic Transitions in cigarette and ENDS use have been changing over time. Young adults have been early adopters of ENDS, with older adults less likely to try ENDS or to completely switch from cigarettes to ENDS. Frequency of product use likely impacts the likelihood of product quitting or switching. What this study adds We found increasing adoption of ENDS among adults who have never smoked, those not currently using cigarettes or ENDS, and those using cigarettes only. These patterns were driven by young adults, with little cigarette cessation or switching to ENDS among older adults. Daily (vs non-daily) use of ENDS facilitated cigarette cessation among those using cigarettes and ENDS, but it was a barrier to ENDS cessation among those using ENDS only. How this study might affect research, practice, or policy Public health efforts are needed to promote cigarette cessation among older adults who smoke, many of whom may already be experiencing the health effects of tobacco use. Studies are needed to develop strategies for leveraging ENDS to maximize smoking cessation while also helping those who successfully quit smoking to avoid long-term ENDS use.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,004 | 0,006 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,003 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,003 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».